Following the U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—the first such operation against a head of state in over two decades—traders have priced "No" at 91%, reflecting the absence of subsequent military actions targeting other foreign leaders amid complex international law debates over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity. Recent escalations, including U.S. deployment of 1,000 paratroops to the Middle East and warnings of potential operations against Iranian assets, alongside President Trump's signals toward Cuba, have fueled brief speculation but failed to shift consensus, as no confirmed special operations or indictments signal imminent repeats before year-end. Historical rarity and diplomatic barriers reinforce trader skepticism for further captures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWerden die USA 2026 einen weiteren Weltmarktführer erobern?
Werden die USA 2026 einen weiteren Weltmarktführer erobern?
Ja
$45,823 Vol.
$45,823 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$45,823 Vol.
$45,823 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—the first such operation against a head of state in over two decades—traders have priced "No" at 91%, reflecting the absence of subsequent military actions targeting other foreign leaders amid complex international law debates over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity. Recent escalations, including U.S. deployment of 1,000 paratroops to the Middle East and warnings of potential operations against Iranian assets, alongside President Trump's signals toward Cuba, have fueled brief speculation but failed to shift consensus, as no confirmed special operations or indictments signal imminent repeats before year-end. Historical rarity and diplomatic barriers reinforce trader skepticism for further captures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$45,823Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—the first such operation against a head of state in over two decades—traders have priced "No" at 91%, reflecting the absence of subsequent military actions targeting other foreign leaders amid complex international law debates over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity. Recent escalations, including U.S. deployment of 1,000 paratroops to the Middle East and warnings of potential operations against Iranian assets, alongside President Trump's signals toward Cuba, have fueled brief speculation but failed to shift consensus, as no confirmed special operations or indictments signal imminent repeats before year-end. Historical rarity and diplomatic barriers reinforce trader skepticism for further captures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$45,823Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—the first such operation against a head of state in over two decades—traders have priced "No" at 91%, reflecting the absence of subsequent military actions targeting other foreign leaders amid complex international law debates over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity. Recent escalations, including U.S. deployment of 1,000 paratroops to the Middle East and warnings of potential operations against Iranian assets, alongside President Trump's signals toward Cuba, have fueled brief speculation but failed to shift consensus, as no confirmed special operations or indictments signal imminent repeats before year-end. Historical rarity and diplomatic barriers reinforce trader skepticism for further captures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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