Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a mere 8% implied probability to silver (SI) hitting $30 by March 31, anchored by the metal's current spot price of $23.42—well below the threshold amid a resilient US dollar and elevated real yields pressuring precious metals. Silver's dual role as industrial input (solar panels, EVs) and safe-haven asset has faltered against gold's outperformance, with COMEX inventories steady at 280 million ounces and ETF outflows totaling $150 million last week. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI data, potentially signaling sticky inflation and delaying Fed cuts (now 72% odds for June per CME FedWatch), and the March 20 FOMC meeting; a hawkish tilt could cap upside, while softer data might spark a 10-15% rally per historical precedents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$956,818 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ 170 $
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
<1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
<1%
↑ $120
<1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
1%
↑ $95
2%
↓ $65
74%
↓ $60
39%
↓ $50
9%
↓ $40
3%
↓ $25
1%
$956,818 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ 170 $
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
<1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
<1%
↑ $120
<1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
1%
↑ $95
2%
↓ $65
74%
↓ $60
39%
↓ $50
9%
↓ $40
3%
↓ $25
1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a mere 8% implied probability to silver (SI) hitting $30 by March 31, anchored by the metal's current spot price of $23.42—well below the threshold amid a resilient US dollar and elevated real yields pressuring precious metals. Silver's dual role as industrial input (solar panels, EVs) and safe-haven asset has faltered against gold's outperformance, with COMEX inventories steady at 280 million ounces and ETF outflows totaling $150 million last week. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI data, potentially signaling sticky inflation and delaying Fed cuts (now 72% odds for June per CME FedWatch), and the March 20 FOMC meeting; a hawkish tilt could cap upside, while softer data might spark a 10-15% rally per historical precedents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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