Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
Politik·Mittlerer Osten

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Market icon
Politik·Mittlerer Osten

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

$9,121,450 Vol.

Nov 5, 2025
Polymarket

$9,121,450 Vol.

Polymarket

October 29

$24,426 Vol.

No

October 30

$66,799 Vol.

Yes

October 31

$57,545 Vol.

Yes

November 1

$228,007 Vol.

Yes

November 2

$152,234 Vol.

Yes

November 3

$83,226 Vol.

Yes

November 4

$728,964 Vol.

No

November 5

$189,996 Vol.

Yes

November 6

$163,961 Vol.

Yes

November 7

$69,807 Vol.

No

November 8

$133,642 Vol.

Yes

November 9

$254,973 Vol.

Yes

November 10

$168,198 Vol.

Yes

November 11

$105,391 Vol.

No

November 12

$41,620 Vol.

No

November 13

$128,822 Vol.

Yes

November 14

$40,611 Vol.

No

November 15

$25,567 Vol.

No

November 16

$98,133 Vol.

Yes

November 17

$80,522 Vol.

No

November 18

$85,260 Vol.

Yes

November 19

$96,908 Vol.

Yes

November 20

$49,142 Vol.

No

November 21

$72,916 Vol.

Yes

November 22

$88,793 Vol.

Yes

November 23

$53,984 Vol.

Yes

November 24

$41,324 Vol.

No

November 25

$16,646 Vol.

No

November 26

$36,978 Vol.

No

November 27

$18,887 Vol.

Yes

November 28

$45,758 Vol.

No

November 29

$30,122 Vol.

No

November 30

$20,350 Vol.

No

December 1

$16,399 Vol.

No

December 2

$28,740 Vol.

No

December 3

$22,529 Vol.

No

December 4

$129,893 Vol.

Yes

December 5

$61,486 Vol.

No

December 6

$32,733 Vol.

No

December 7

$43,531 Vol.

No

December 8

$4,021,935 Vol.

Yes

December 9

$118,320 Vol.

No

December 10

$30,550 Vol.

No

December 11

$16,645 Vol.

No

December 12

$23,012 Vol.

Yes

December 13

$84,378 Vol.

No

December 14

$101,053 Vol.

Yes

December 15

$21,960 Vol.

No

December 16

$55,553 Vol.

Yes

December 17

$59,674 Vol.

No

December 18

$34,253 Vol.

Yes

December 19

$28,701 Vol.

No

December 20

$126,380 Vol.

No

December 21

$122,833 Vol.

Yes

December 22

$122,462 Vol.

Yes

December 23

$53,755 Vol.

No

December 24

$73,248 Vol.

Yes

December 25

$29,586 Vol.

Yes

26. Dezember

$17,189 Vol.

Ja

27. Dezember

$39,594 Vol.

Nein

28. Dezember

$19,989 Vol.

Nein

29. Dezember

$28,354 Vol.

Nein

30. Dezember

$28,941 Vol.

Nein

31. Dezember

$28,263 Vol.

Nein

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$9,121,450
Enddatum
Dec 31, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 30" at 100%, followed by "October 31" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?" has generated $9.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?" is "October 30" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.