Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Jan 31

Feb 28

$6,929,664 Umsatz

Nov 7, 2025

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$6,929,664
Enddatum
Dec 31, 2025
Erstellt am
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ergebnis vorgeschlagen: Yes

Kein Widerspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht vor externen Links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Jan 31

Feb 28

$6,929,664 Umsatz

October 30

$77,645 Umsatz

Yes

October 31

$153,814 Umsatz

No

November 1

$77,419 Umsatz

No

November 2

$104,552 Umsatz

Yes

November 3

$79,019 Umsatz

Yes

November 4

$126,778 Umsatz

Yes

November 5

$203,702 Umsatz

No

November 6

$49,111 Umsatz

No

November 7

$35,457 Umsatz

No

November 8

$15,571 Umsatz

Yes

November 9

$1,280,816 Umsatz

No

November 10

$61,561 Umsatz

Yes

November 11

$29,870 Umsatz

No

November 12

$92,584 Umsatz

Yes

November 13

$54,020 Umsatz

No

November 14

$45,955 Umsatz

No

November 15

$42,589 Umsatz

No

November 16

$83,132 Umsatz

Yes

November 17

$87,333 Umsatz

Yes

November 18

$85,671 Umsatz

No

November 19

$44,963 Umsatz

Yes

November 20

$54,782 Umsatz

Yes

November 21

$26,088 Umsatz

Yes

November 22

$21,268 Umsatz

Yes

November 23

$30,534 Umsatz

No

November 24

$14,365 Umsatz

Yes

November 25

$59,307 Umsatz

No

November 26

$53,317 Umsatz

Yes

November 27

$33,245 Umsatz

No

November 28

$12,086 Umsatz

Yes

November 29

$11,476 Umsatz

Yes

November 30

$1,857,452 Umsatz

No

December 1

$62,509 Umsatz

Yes

December 2

$106,063 Umsatz

Yes

December 3

$147,719 Umsatz

Yes

December 4

$85,586 Umsatz

No

December 5

$71,822 Umsatz

Yes

December 6

$139,818 Umsatz

No

December 7

$60,961 Umsatz

No

December 8

$131,667 Umsatz

Yes

December 9

$57,324 Umsatz

No

December 10

$35,639 Umsatz

No

December 11

$31,527 Umsatz

No

December 12

$18,538 Umsatz

No

December 13

$15,811 Umsatz

Yes

December 14

$44,676 Umsatz

No

December 15

$15,593 Umsatz

No

December 16

$19,598 Umsatz

No

December 17

$54,038 Umsatz

No

December 18

$20,785 Umsatz

Yes

December 19

$18,414 Umsatz

Yes

December 20

$156,923 Umsatz

Yes

December 21

$95,642 Umsatz

Yes

December 22

$103,890 Umsatz

No

December 23

$42,350 Umsatz

No

December 24

$79,828 Umsatz

No

December 25

$97,271 Umsatz

Yes

December 26

$90,936 Umsatz

No

December 27

$29,623 Umsatz

No

December 28

$19,861 Umsatz

No

December 29

$18,062 Umsatz

No

December 30

$23,206 Umsatz

No

December 31

$28,504 Umsatz

No

Über

Volumen
$6,929,664
Enddatum
Dec 31, 2025
Erstellt am
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Vorsicht vor externen Links.