Trump's post-election cabinet nominations since November 2024 have sparked trader focus on early turnover risks before 2027, mirroring the first term's high attrition rate where over 90% of top officials departed. Controversial picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary face Senate confirmation hurdles amid allegations of misconduct, while Matt Gaetz withdrew his Attorney General bid due to ethics investigations, paving the way for Ken Paxton. With Republicans holding a slim 53-47 Senate majority, moderates such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski could block nominees, fueling speculation. Key upcoming events include committee confirmation hearings starting late January 2025 post-inauguration, followed by floor votes that may force resignations or acting secretaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$327,272 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
David Sacks
57%
Kristi Noem
54%
Tulsi Gabbard
54%
John Ratcliffe
40%
Pam Bondi
40%
Dan Scavino
40%
Howard Lutnick
39%
Karoline Leavitt
39%
Kash Patel
37%
Pete Hegseth
35%
Susie Wiles
34%
Scott Bessent
20%
Tom Homan
25%
Stephen Miller
25%
Marco Rubio
22%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
20%
Lee Zeldin
18%
Russell Vought
16%
$327,272 Vol.
David Sacks
$4,124 Vol.
57%
Kristi Noem
$83,159 Vol.
54%
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,185 Vol.
54%
John Ratcliffe
$0 Vol.
40%
Pam Bondi
$44,979 Vol.
40%
Dan Scavino
$0 Vol.
40%
Howard Lutnick
$30,842 Vol.
39%
Karoline Leavitt
$0 Vol.
39%
Kash Patel
$112,482 Vol.
37%
Pete Hegseth
$5,904 Vol.
35%
Susie Wiles
$37,453 Vol.
34%
Scott Bessent
$0 Vol.
20%
Tom Homan
$0 Vol.
25%
Stephen Miller
$0 Vol.
25%
Marco Rubio
$0 Vol.
22%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$0 Vol.
20%
Lee Zeldin
$0 Vol.
18%
Russell Vought
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trump's post-election cabinet nominations since November 2024 have sparked trader focus on early turnover risks before 2027, mirroring the first term's high attrition rate where over 90% of top officials departed. Controversial picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary face Senate confirmation hurdles amid allegations of misconduct, while Matt Gaetz withdrew his Attorney General bid due to ethics investigations, paving the way for Ken Paxton. With Republicans holding a slim 53-47 Senate majority, moderates such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski could block nominees, fueling speculation. Key upcoming events include committee confirmation hearings starting late January 2025 post-inauguration, followed by floor votes that may force resignations or acting secretaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET
Volumen
$327,272Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trump's post-election cabinet nominations since November 2024 have sparked trader focus on early turnover risks before 2027, mirroring the first term's high attrition rate where over 90% of top officials departed. Controversial picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary face Senate confirmation hurdles amid allegations of misconduct, while Matt Gaetz withdrew his Attorney General bid due to ethics investigations, paving the way for Ken Paxton. With Republicans holding a slim 53-47 Senate majority, moderates such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski could block nominees, fueling speculation. Key upcoming events include committee confirmation hearings starting late January 2025 post-inauguration, followed by floor votes that may force resignations or acting secretaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$327,272Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's post-election cabinet nominations since November 2024 have sparked trader focus on early turnover risks before 2027, mirroring the first term's high attrition rate where over 90% of top officials departed. Controversial picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary face Senate confirmation hurdles amid allegations of misconduct, while Matt Gaetz withdrew his Attorney General bid due to ethics investigations, paving the way for Ken Paxton. With Republicans holding a slim 53-47 Senate majority, moderates such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski could block nominees, fueling speculation. Key upcoming events include committee confirmation hearings starting late January 2025 post-inauguration, followed by floor votes that may force resignations or acting secretaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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