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Politik·Trump

Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?

Market icon
Politik·Trump

Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?

Kevin Warsh 96.4%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

Michelle Bowman <1%

Stephen Miran <1%

Polymarket

$20,165,997 Vol.

Kevin Warsh 96.4%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

Michelle Bowman <1%

Stephen Miran <1%

Polymarket

$20,165,997 Vol.

Kevin Warsh

$2,793,868 Vol.

96%

Judy Shelton

$9,149,232 Vol.

2%

Kevin Hassett

$808,311 Vol.

<1%

Christopher Waller

$738,843 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$964,615 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$784,280 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$2,133,697 Vol.

<1%

Rick Reider

$672,158 Vol.

<1%

Michelle Bowman

$2,122,777 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, transmitted to the Senate on March 4, 2026, has solidified trader consensus at over 96% implied probability, reflecting Warsh's extensive prior experience on the Fed Board from 2006-2011 and alignment with administration priorities amid Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026. With Republican control of the Senate, the confirmation process—starting with Banking Committee hearings and advancing to a floor vote—appears straightforward, bolstered by broad acclaim and minimal organized opposition. Potential challenges include unexpected GOP holds, procedural delays, or late-breaking scandals that could prompt nomination withdrawal or an alternative pick like Judy Shelton, though such shifts remain low-probability per market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$20,165,997
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, transmitted to the Senate on March 4, 2026, has solidified trader consensus at over 96% implied probability, reflecting Warsh's extensive prior experience on the Fed Board from 2006-2011 and alignment with administration priorities amid Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026. With Republican control of the Senate, the confirmation process—starting with Banking Committee hearings and advancing to a floor vote—appears straightforward, bolstered by broad acclaim and minimal organized opposition. Potential challenges include unexpected GOP holds, procedural delays, or late-breaking scandals that could prompt nomination withdrawal or an alternative pick like Judy Shelton, though such shifts remain low-probability per market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$20,165,997
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Kevin Warsh" mit 96%, gefolgt von „Judy Shelton" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 96¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $20.2 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 4, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 9 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?" ist „Kevin Warsh" mit 96%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Judy Shelton" mit 2%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wer wird als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.