Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a high likelihood (62%) that the DHS funding lapse—part of the broader government shutdown risk—will extend beyond March 31, reflecting stalled bipartisan negotiations over a continuing resolution amid partisan divides on spending cuts and border security provisions. Recent developments include the House GOP's narrow passage of a short-term CR on March 22 with controversial cuts, swiftly rejected by Senate Democrats, forcing reliance on a March 29 deadline extension that failed to yield a full-year appropriations deal. Conservative holdouts in the slim Republican majority continue blocking compromise, while Democrats prioritize Ukraine aid linkage, elevating uncertainty and favoring prolonged shutdown scenarios over near-term resolutions like March 28-31 (28%). Upcoming floor votes and whip counts could shift odds rapidly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWann endet die DHS-Abschaltung?
Wann endet die DHS-Abschaltung?
Nach dem 31. März 66.3%
28.–31. März 28.7%
24.–27. März 3.9%
$1,352,445 Vol.
$1,352,445 Vol.
24.–27. März
4%
28.–31. März
29%
Nach dem 31. März
66%
Nach dem 31. März 66.3%
28.–31. März 28.7%
24.–27. März 3.9%
$1,352,445 Vol.
$1,352,445 Vol.
24.–27. März
4%
28.–31. März
29%
Nach dem 31. März
66%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 15, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a high likelihood (62%) that the DHS funding lapse—part of the broader government shutdown risk—will extend beyond March 31, reflecting stalled bipartisan negotiations over a continuing resolution amid partisan divides on spending cuts and border security provisions. Recent developments include the House GOP's narrow passage of a short-term CR on March 22 with controversial cuts, swiftly rejected by Senate Democrats, forcing reliance on a March 29 deadline extension that failed to yield a full-year appropriations deal. Conservative holdouts in the slim Republican majority continue blocking compromise, while Democrats prioritize Ukraine aid linkage, elevating uncertainty and favoring prolonged shutdown scenarios over near-term resolutions like March 28-31 (28%). Upcoming floor votes and whip counts could shift odds rapidly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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