A fresh YouGov MRP poll released this week projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-seat system, with 43 seats to Reform UK's 30 and Welsh Labour's 12, anchoring trader consensus at 81% implied probability for Plaid Cymru securing the most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has plummeted to 13% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living policies and leadership under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her own seat, while Plaid Cymru leads at 33% on pro-independence messaging and Reform UK at 27% taps anti-establishment sentiment. Earlier polls depict a two-horse race, but regional list dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Parlamentswahl in Wales
Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Wales
Plaid Cymru 81%
Reform UK 16%
Welsh Labour 1.9%
Walisische Konservative <1%
$19,150 Vol.
$19,150 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Welsh Labour
2%
Plaid Cymru
81%
Walisische Konservative
<1%
Reform UK
16%
Walisische Liberaldemokraten
<1%
Walisische Grüne Partei
<1%
Plaid Cymru 81%
Reform UK 16%
Welsh Labour 1.9%
Walisische Konservative <1%
$19,150 Vol.
$19,150 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Welsh Labour
$3,346 Vol.
2%
Plaid Cymru
$5,882 Vol.
81%
Walisische Konservative
$2,492 Vol.
<1%
Reform UK
$3,859 Vol.
16%
Walisische Liberaldemokraten
$1,865 Vol.
<1%
Walisische Grüne Partei
$1,706 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).A fresh YouGov MRP poll released this week projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-seat system, with 43 seats to Reform UK's 30 and Welsh Labour's 12, anchoring trader consensus at 81% implied probability for Plaid Cymru securing the most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has plummeted to 13% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living policies and leadership under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her own seat, while Plaid Cymru leads at 33% on pro-independence messaging and Reform UK at 27% taps anti-establishment sentiment. Earlier polls depict a two-horse race, but regional list dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volumen
$19,150Enddatum
May 7, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).A fresh YouGov MRP poll released this week projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-seat system, with 43 seats to Reform UK's 30 and Welsh Labour's 12, anchoring trader consensus at 81% implied probability for Plaid Cymru securing the most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has plummeted to 13% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living policies and leadership under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her own seat, while Plaid Cymru leads at 33% on pro-independence messaging and Reform UK at 27% taps anti-establishment sentiment. Earlier polls depict a two-horse race, but regional list dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Volumen
$19,150Enddatum
May 7, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A fresh YouGov MRP poll released this week projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the May 7 Senedd election under the expanded 96-seat system, with 43 seats to Reform UK's 30 and Welsh Labour's 12, anchoring trader consensus at 81% implied probability for Plaid Cymru securing the most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has plummeted to 13% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living policies and leadership under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her own seat, while Plaid Cymru leads at 33% on pro-independence messaging and Reform UK at 27% taps anti-establishment sentiment. Earlier polls depict a two-horse race, but regional list dynamics and turnout could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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