Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 65.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Republican (R+3 PVI). This reflects Democrats' surge in the district during the 2025 gubernatorial race, where Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger carried VA-01 by 2.5 points, prompting the ratings shift from Likely to Lean R in November 2025. Incumbent Rob Wittman (R) holds strong fundraising ($3.2 million cash-on-hand) and faces no primary, but a crowded Democratic primary features frontrunner Shannon Taylor, backed by EMILYs List and early House Majority PAC polling showing her tied with Wittman. Uncertainty surrounds an April 2026 redistricting referendum that could redraw lines via Democratic-led legislature, alongside midterm dynamics favoring challengers. Filing deadline is May 26, primary August 4.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertVA-01 Wahlsieger
VA-01 Wahlsieger
$12,915 Vol.
$12,915 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
67%
Republikanische Partei
29%
$12,915 Vol.
$12,915 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$12,618 Vol.
67%
Republikanische Partei
$297 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 65.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Republican (R+3 PVI). This reflects Democrats' surge in the district during the 2025 gubernatorial race, where Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger carried VA-01 by 2.5 points, prompting the ratings shift from Likely to Lean R in November 2025. Incumbent Rob Wittman (R) holds strong fundraising ($3.2 million cash-on-hand) and faces no primary, but a crowded Democratic primary features frontrunner Shannon Taylor, backed by EMILYs List and early House Majority PAC polling showing her tied with Wittman. Uncertainty surrounds an April 2026 redistricting referendum that could redraw lines via Democratic-led legislature, alongside midterm dynamics favoring challengers. Filing deadline is May 26, primary August 4.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volumen
$12,915Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 65.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Republican (R+3 PVI). This reflects Democrats' surge in the district during the 2025 gubernatorial race, where Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger carried VA-01 by 2.5 points, prompting the ratings shift from Likely to Lean R in November 2025. Incumbent Rob Wittman (R) holds strong fundraising ($3.2 million cash-on-hand) and faces no primary, but a crowded Democratic primary features frontrunner Shannon Taylor, backed by EMILYs List and early House Majority PAC polling showing her tied with Wittman. Uncertainty surrounds an April 2026 redistricting referendum that could redraw lines via Democratic-led legislature, alongside midterm dynamics favoring challengers. Filing deadline is May 26, primary August 4.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,915Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 65.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, diverging from forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Lean Republican (R+3 PVI). This reflects Democrats' surge in the district during the 2025 gubernatorial race, where Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger carried VA-01 by 2.5 points, prompting the ratings shift from Likely to Lean R in November 2025. Incumbent Rob Wittman (R) holds strong fundraising ($3.2 million cash-on-hand) and faces no primary, but a crowded Democratic primary features frontrunner Shannon Taylor, backed by EMILYs List and early House Majority PAC polling showing her tied with Wittman. Uncertainty surrounds an April 2026 redistricting referendum that could redraw lines via Democratic-led legislature, alongside midterm dynamics favoring challengers. Filing deadline is May 26, primary August 4.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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