The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators around March 24, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which issued a counterproposal amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and proxy targets. Iran has hardened its stance, warning against US ground troops while dismissing direct negotiations, though Pakistan announced it will host US-Iran talks in Islamabad soon. US special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for meetings this week, but persistent Houthi attacks on Israel and volatile oil prices signal escalation risks over de-escalation. Mediators like Oman and Egypt urge swift dialogue, yet the impasse reflects entrenched positions on sanctions relief, missile programs, and territorial disputes, leaving diplomats racing against further military actions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWaffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
Waffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
$61,593,076 Vol.
31. März
2%
7. April
8%
15. April
18%
30. April
33%
31. Mai
48%
30. Juni
59%
31. Dezember
75%
$61,593,076 Vol.
31. März
$38,887,826 Vol.
2%
7. April
$1,409,627 Vol.
8%
15. April
$5,992,267 Vol.
18%
30. April
$6,689,761 Vol.
33%
31. Mai
$2,260,257 Vol.
48%
30. Juni
$2,347,302 Vol.
59%
31. Dezember
$512,676 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators around March 24, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which issued a counterproposal amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and proxy targets. Iran has hardened its stance, warning against US ground troops while dismissing direct negotiations, though Pakistan announced it will host US-Iran talks in Islamabad soon. US special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for meetings this week, but persistent Houthi attacks on Israel and volatile oil prices signal escalation risks over de-escalation. Mediators like Oman and Egypt urge swift dialogue, yet the impasse reflects entrenched positions on sanctions relief, missile programs, and territorial disputes, leaving diplomats racing against further military actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volumen
$61,593,076Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators around March 24, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which issued a counterproposal amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and proxy targets. Iran has hardened its stance, warning against US ground troops while dismissing direct negotiations, though Pakistan announced it will host US-Iran talks in Islamabad soon. US special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for meetings this week, but persistent Houthi attacks on Israel and volatile oil prices signal escalation risks over de-escalation. Mediators like Oman and Egypt urge swift dialogue, yet the impasse reflects entrenched positions on sanctions relief, missile programs, and territorial disputes, leaving diplomats racing against further military actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$61,593,076Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators around March 24, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which issued a counterproposal amid ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and proxy targets. Iran has hardened its stance, warning against US ground troops while dismissing direct negotiations, though Pakistan announced it will host US-Iran talks in Islamabad soon. US special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for meetings this week, but persistent Houthi attacks on Israel and volatile oil prices signal escalation risks over de-escalation. Mediators like Oman and Egypt urge swift dialogue, yet the impasse reflects entrenched positions on sanctions relief, missile programs, and territorial disputes, leaving diplomats racing against further military actions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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