Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term odds for a US military strike on Cuba amid heightened tensions following US airstrikes on Iran and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Trump administration allies now signaling Cuba as a potential next foreign policy focus. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel recently warned of daily US threats to overthrow its government, vowing impregnable resistance, while Deputy Foreign Minister Elisio Álvarez stated the military is preparing for possible aggression. Cuba's ongoing energy crisis and unverified reports of Florida-linked speedboat attacks have fueled speculation, though no official US strike plans have been announced. Upcoming diplomatic statements or executive actions could shift probabilities in this closely watched escalation scenario.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS-Angriff auf Kuba durch...?
US-Angriff auf Kuba durch...?
$2,777,385 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31. März
1%
31. Dezember
37%
$2,777,385 Vol.
31. März
$1,472,375 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember
$770,532 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term odds for a US military strike on Cuba amid heightened tensions following US airstrikes on Iran and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Trump administration allies now signaling Cuba as a potential next foreign policy focus. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel recently warned of daily US threats to overthrow its government, vowing impregnable resistance, while Deputy Foreign Minister Elisio Álvarez stated the military is preparing for possible aggression. Cuba's ongoing energy crisis and unverified reports of Florida-linked speedboat attacks have fueled speculation, though no official US strike plans have been announced. Upcoming diplomatic statements or executive actions could shift probabilities in this closely watched escalation scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volumen
$2,777,385Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term odds for a US military strike on Cuba amid heightened tensions following US airstrikes on Iran and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Trump administration allies now signaling Cuba as a potential next foreign policy focus. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel recently warned of daily US threats to overthrow its government, vowing impregnable resistance, while Deputy Foreign Minister Elisio Álvarez stated the military is preparing for possible aggression. Cuba's ongoing energy crisis and unverified reports of Florida-linked speedboat attacks have fueled speculation, though no official US strike plans have been announced. Upcoming diplomatic statements or executive actions could shift probabilities in this closely watched escalation scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,777,385Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term odds for a US military strike on Cuba amid heightened tensions following US airstrikes on Iran and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Trump administration allies now signaling Cuba as a potential next foreign policy focus. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel recently warned of daily US threats to overthrow its government, vowing impregnable resistance, while Deputy Foreign Minister Elisio Álvarez stated the military is preparing for possible aggression. Cuba's ongoing energy crisis and unverified reports of Florida-linked speedboat attacks have fueled speculation, though no official US strike plans have been announced. Upcoming diplomatic statements or executive actions could shift probabilities in this closely watched escalation scenario.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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