Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.9% to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads of 35-39% in constituency voting intentions from recent surveys like Lord Ashcroft (March 23) and Ipsos (early March), projecting around 60 seats under the additional member system despite a tighter 26-33% on regional lists. This commanding position stems from SNP incumbency under First Minister John Swinney, opposition fragmentation—Reform UK rising to second at 14-18% but list-dependent, Labour slumping to 12-20% post-UK election losses—and stable trends amid campaign launches on March 26 with no new polls showing shifts. Upsets could arise from scandals, leadership gaffes, voter turnout swings, or late opposition consolidation in key regions, though historical base rates favor the leading incumbent in Holyrood contests.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der schottischen Parlamentswahl
Gewinner der schottischen Parlamentswahl
Scottish National Party 96.9%
Reform UK 1.4%
Scottish Labour <1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats <1%
$1,214,012 Vol.
$1,214,012 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Scottish National Party
97%
Reform UK
1%
Scottish Labour
1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
1%
Sovereignty Party
<1%
Schottische Konservative
<1%
Scottish Green Party
<1%
Alba-Partei
<1%
Scottish National Party 96.9%
Reform UK 1.4%
Scottish Labour <1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats <1%
$1,214,012 Vol.
$1,214,012 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Scottish National Party
$931,004 Vol.
97%
Reform UK
$79,663 Vol.
1%
Scottish Labour
$40,269 Vol.
1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
$102,681 Vol.
1%
Sovereignty Party
$3,955 Vol.
<1%
Schottische Konservative
$4,723 Vol.
<1%
Scottish Green Party
$35,705 Vol.
<1%
Alba-Partei
$16,012 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.9% to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads of 35-39% in constituency voting intentions from recent surveys like Lord Ashcroft (March 23) and Ipsos (early March), projecting around 60 seats under the additional member system despite a tighter 26-33% on regional lists. This commanding position stems from SNP incumbency under First Minister John Swinney, opposition fragmentation—Reform UK rising to second at 14-18% but list-dependent, Labour slumping to 12-20% post-UK election losses—and stable trends amid campaign launches on March 26 with no new polls showing shifts. Upsets could arise from scandals, leadership gaffes, voter turnout swings, or late opposition consolidation in key regions, though historical base rates favor the leading incumbent in Holyrood contests.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,214,012Enddatum
May 7, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.9% to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads of 35-39% in constituency voting intentions from recent surveys like Lord Ashcroft (March 23) and Ipsos (early March), projecting around 60 seats under the additional member system despite a tighter 26-33% on regional lists. This commanding position stems from SNP incumbency under First Minister John Swinney, opposition fragmentation—Reform UK rising to second at 14-18% but list-dependent, Labour slumping to 12-20% post-UK election losses—and stable trends amid campaign launches on March 26 with no new polls showing shifts. Upsets could arise from scandals, leadership gaffes, voter turnout swings, or late opposition consolidation in key regions, though historical base rates favor the leading incumbent in Holyrood contests.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volumen
$1,214,012Enddatum
May 7, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.9% to secure the most seats in the Scottish Parliament election on May 7, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads of 35-39% in constituency voting intentions from recent surveys like Lord Ashcroft (March 23) and Ipsos (early March), projecting around 60 seats under the additional member system despite a tighter 26-33% on regional lists. This commanding position stems from SNP incumbency under First Minister John Swinney, opposition fragmentation—Reform UK rising to second at 14-18% but list-dependent, Labour slumping to 12-20% post-UK election losses—and stable trends amid campaign launches on March 26 with no new polls showing shifts. Upsets could arise from scandals, leadership gaffes, voter turnout swings, or late opposition consolidation in key regions, though historical base rates favor the leading incumbent in Holyrood contests.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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