Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite recent preparations and a complex cap table tied to Microsoft. A CNBC report on March 17 highlighted Q4 2026 IPO targeting amid an enterprise pivot for ChatGPT as a productivity tool, following February's $110 billion funding round at $840 billion post-money valuation—yet annual losses exceeding $14 billion and profitability delayed until 2029 fuel skepticism on timelines. Among yes outcomes totaling 36.5%, 1T–1.25T market cap leads at 11.5%, aligning with aggressive private secondary pricing around $700–800 billion, with key catalysts like regulatory filings or earnings previews ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 64%
1T–1,25T 11.5%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 8.8%
1,25T–1,5T 4.9%
$1,526,859 Vol.
$1,526,859 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500 Mrd.
5%
500–750 Mrd.
4%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
9%
1T–1,25T
12%
1,25T–1,5T
5%
1,5T+
3%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
64%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 64%
1T–1,25T 11.5%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 8.8%
1,25T–1,5T 4.9%
$1,526,859 Vol.
$1,526,859 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500 Mrd.
$255,307 Vol.
5%
500–750 Mrd.
$137,188 Vol.
4%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$128,143 Vol.
9%
1T–1,25T
$169,329 Vol.
12%
1,25T–1,5T
$480,299 Vol.
5%
1,5T+
$87,847 Vol.
3%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
$268,746 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite recent preparations and a complex cap table tied to Microsoft. A CNBC report on March 17 highlighted Q4 2026 IPO targeting amid an enterprise pivot for ChatGPT as a productivity tool, following February's $110 billion funding round at $840 billion post-money valuation—yet annual losses exceeding $14 billion and profitability delayed until 2029 fuel skepticism on timelines. Among yes outcomes totaling 36.5%, 1T–1.25T market cap leads at 11.5%, aligning with aggressive private secondary pricing around $700–800 billion, with key catalysts like regulatory filings or earnings previews ahead.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,526,859Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite recent preparations and a complex cap table tied to Microsoft. A CNBC report on March 17 highlighted Q4 2026 IPO targeting amid an enterprise pivot for ChatGPT as a productivity tool, following February's $110 billion funding round at $840 billion post-money valuation—yet annual losses exceeding $14 billion and profitability delayed until 2029 fuel skepticism on timelines. Among yes outcomes totaling 36.5%, 1T–1.25T market cap leads at 11.5%, aligning with aggressive private secondary pricing around $700–800 billion, with key catalysts like regulatory filings or earnings previews ahead.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,526,859Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite recent preparations and a complex cap table tied to Microsoft. A CNBC report on March 17 highlighted Q4 2026 IPO targeting amid an enterprise pivot for ChatGPT as a productivity tool, following February's $110 billion funding round at $840 billion post-money valuation—yet annual losses exceeding $14 billion and profitability delayed until 2029 fuel skepticism on timelines. Among yes outcomes totaling 36.5%, 1T–1.25T market cap leads at 11.5%, aligning with aggressive private secondary pricing around $700–800 billion, with key catalysts like regulatory filings or earnings previews ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen