Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Amy Acton ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy in the November 3, 2026, Ohio gubernatorial race primarily due to her consistent polling leads across most recent surveys. Multiple independent polls from late September and early October showed Acton ahead by margins ranging from 4 to 9 points among likely voters, driven by voter priorities on affordability, healthcare costs, and property taxes where her background as former state health director resonates. Ramaswamy has countered with a $25 million personal loan boosting his cash position, a Trump campaign appearance in the state, and an endorsement from the Ohio physicians PAC, narrowing some gaps in a single late Republican-leaning poll. The open-seat contest remains competitive with early voting underway and a sizable undecided share, though Acton's edge in swing demographics like independents supports the current implied probabilities.