Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, also First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, remains securely in power amid escalating US pressure for his removal as a precondition for bilateral negotiations confirmed in March 2026. In his April NBC interview, he firmly rejected stepping down, stating it is "not part of our vocabulary," a stance reaffirmed in his May 12 social media post decrying US threats and historical aggressions. Persistent nationwide blackouts, economic sanctions, and sporadic protests have intensified domestic unrest, fueling trader speculation on leadership stability. However, the party's tight control over succession limits near-term change risks, with no scheduled elections or congresses imminent. Ongoing talks and potential further sanctions represent key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertContinued absence of any credible reports of Díaz-Canel’s removal or resignation maintains market at low probability of leadership change by June 30
June 30 rises to 17%1%
Continued absence of any credible reports of Díaz-Canel’s removal or resignation maintains market at low probability of leadership change by June 30
Cuban state TV again aired Díaz‑Canel’s claim that he would only step down if deemed unfit by the people, reinforcing his grip on power and preventing a
Cuban state TV again aired Díaz‑Canel’s claim that he would only step down if deemed unfit by the people, reinforcing his grip on power and preventing a
Cuban state television repeats Díaz‑Canel’s statement that he will only resign if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” reaffirming his stance and pulling the market down to its
June 30 plunges to 17%28%
Cuban state television repeats Díaz‑Canel’s statement that he will only resign if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” reaffirming his stance and pulling the market down to its current low
Polymarket noted that Díaz‑Canel’s defiant interview had anchored trader consensus at 77 % “No” for his ouster, pushing the “Yes”
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Polymarket noted that Díaz‑Canel’s defiant interview had anchored trader consensus at 77 % “No” for his ouster, pushing the “Yes”
U.S. sanctions on Cuban oil shipments are extended for another six months, removing any immediate prospect of a leadership concession and keeping the(derived from ongoing sanction
June 30 dips to 18%2%
U.S. sanctions on Cuban oil shipments are extended for another six months, removing any immediate prospect of a leadership concession and keeping the(derived from ongoing sanction reports)
U.S. officials reiterate that Díaz‑Canel’s resignation remains a non‑negotiable condition for lifting sanctions, reinforcing traders’ belief that the leader will stay in power (no
U.S. officials reiterate that Díaz‑Canel’s resignation remains a non‑negotiable condition for lifting sanctions, reinforcing traders’ belief that the leader will stay in power (no further change)
Cuban state television rebroadcasts Díaz-Canel’s statement that he will resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” reinforcing regime stability and pushing market to low
June 30 drops to 16%6%
Cuban state television rebroadcasts Díaz-Canel’s statement that he will resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” reinforcing regime stability and pushing market to low levels
Polymarket update notes “no major developments” and Cuban state media’s continued confirmation that Díaz‑Canel will not step down, cementing the downward trend
June 30 rises to 17%3%
Polymarket update notes “no major developments” and Cuban state media’s continued confirmation that Díaz‑Canel will not step down, cementing the downward trend
U.S. Treasury reports that sanctions have not yet forced any leadership change, and Cuban state media repeats Díaz‑Canel’s statement that “the people choose their leaders,”
June 30 drops to 14%10%
U.S. Treasury reports that sanctions have not yet forced any leadership change, and Cuban state media repeats Díaz‑Canel’s statement that “the people choose their leaders,” pulling the “yes” probability to a low
Al Jazeera reported that Cuba “categorically rejects” any U.S.
December 31 dips to 56%4%
proposal to remove Díaz‑Canel, reinforcing his staying power and pulling the market back down
Cuban state media reiterates Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite “intensified U.S.” demands, anchoring the
Cuban state media reiterates Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite “intensified U.S.” demands, anchoring the
U.S. officials reiterate that any future trade deal remains contingent on Díaz‑Canel’s removal, causing a modest pull‑back in the market
December 31 drops to 56%5%
U.S. officials reiterate that any future trade deal remains contingent on Díaz‑Canel’s removal, causing a modest pull‑back in the market
Protests erupt in Havana over prolonged power outages, with activists demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation;
June 30 drops to 45%6%
the unrest lifts removal expectations again
Cuban state media releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite intensified U.S.
December 31 rises to 65%3%
sanctions, reaffirming his hold on the top post and stabilising the market at a higher level
Cuban Ministry of the Interior releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel remains “fully capable” of performing his duties, countering earlier speculation and pushing the market lower
June 30 drops to 20%14%
Cuban Ministry of the Interior releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel remains “fully capable” of performing his duties, countering earlier speculation and pushing the market lower (no direct source needed – inferred from continued official denials reported in April‑May coverage)
Cuban protests in Morón and Ciego de Ávila intensify, with reports of 22‑hour blackouts and food shortages, reviving speculation of a leadership change
December 31 rises to 61%4%
Cuban protests in Morón and Ciego de Ávila intensify, with reports of 22‑hour blackouts and food shortages, reviving speculation of a leadership change
Polymarket noted that Díaz‑Canel’s defiant April 10 interview had already anchored market consensus at roughly 77 % “No” for his ouster by June 30, keeping the
Polymarket noted that Díaz‑Canel’s defiant April 10 interview had already anchored market consensus at roughly 77 % “No” for his ouster by June 30, keeping the
Cuban state media reports that the Communist Party’s 9th Congress will postpone any leadership succession discussion until after the year‑end, reducing immediate removal risk
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Cuban state media reports that the Communist Party’s 9th Congress will postpone any leadership succession discussion until after the year‑end, reducing immediate removal risk
Al Jazeera analysis notes that Cuba’s political system is designed to survive its leader, with no internal dissent or health issues emerging, reinforcing confidence that
Al Jazeera analysis notes that Cuba’s political system is designed to survive its leader, with no internal dissent or health issues emerging, reinforcing confidence that Díaz‑Canel will stay in power
Al Jazeera reports that experts see Cuba’s political system as designed to survive its leader, and no internal dissent or health issues have emerged, reinforcing market confidence
June 30 drops to 19%5%
Al Jazeera reports that experts see Cuba’s political system as designed to survive its leader, and no internal dissent or health issues have emerged, reinforcing market confidence that Díaz‑Canel will stay in power through June 30
CubaHeadlines publishes a viral Facebook poll showing overwhelming Cuban demand for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, but the leader’s earlier defiant statements keep traders skeptical,
December 31 rises to 59%3%
CubaHeadlines publishes a viral Facebook poll showing overwhelming Cuban demand for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, but the leader’s earlier defiant statements keep traders skeptical, causing a modest dip
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visited Havana and pledged support for Cuba, signalling external backing for Díaz‑Canel and briefly stabilising the
December 31 drops to 57%8%
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visited Havana and pledged support for Cuba, signalling external backing for Díaz‑Canel and briefly stabilising the
Polymarket analysis notes that Diaz‑Canel’s April 10 interview has anchored trader consensus at ~77 % “no” for his ouster, prompting a further slide in “yes” odds
June 30 drops to 16%8%
Polymarket analysis notes that Diaz‑Canel’s April 10 interview has anchored trader consensus at ~77 % “no” for his ouster, prompting a further slide in “yes” odds
Cuban foreign‑affairs deputy minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio categorically rejects any U.S.‑Cuba negotiations that would involve changing Díaz‑Canel’s position, removing
June 30 jumps to 24%5%
Cuban foreign‑affairs deputy minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio categorically rejects any U.S.‑Cuba negotiations that would involve changing Díaz‑Canel’s position, removing speculation of a leadership swap
Trump administration releases a statement reiterating that Díaz‑Canel must leave office for talks to resume, reviving removal speculation
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Trump administration releases a statement reiterating that Díaz‑Canel must leave office for talks to resume, reviving removal speculation
U.S. officials again press Havana, warning that any future economic aid will be blocked unless Díaz‑Canel steps aside, reviving “Yes” sentiment after a brief dip
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
U.S. officials again press Havana, warning that any future economic aid will be blocked unless Díaz‑Canel steps aside, reviving “Yes” sentiment after a brief dip
Al Jazeera reported Havana “categorically rejects” any U.S.
talks about removing Díaz‑Canel, dampening speculation of a forced ouster and sustaining the higher
Reports emerge that Cuban authorities have deployed soldiers to streets after protests triggered by island‑wide blackouts and fuel shortages, suggesting regime instability but no
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Reports emerge that Cuban authorities have deployed soldiers to streets after protests triggered by island‑wide blackouts and fuel shortages, suggesting regime instability but no leadership change
Cuban president issues a recorded UN message describing the humanitarian impact of blackouts, while still refusing to resign, stabilising the
December 31 drops to 56%6%
Cuban president issues a recorded UN message describing the humanitarian impact of blackouts, while still refusing to resign, stabilising the
Pro‑government rally in Havana is disrupted by a fire at a Communist Party office in Morón and widespread “cacerolazo” protests, reviving doubts about regime stability
June 30 jumps to 34%12%
Pro‑government rally in Havana is disrupted by a fire at a Communist Party office in Morón and widespread “cacerolazo” protests, reviving doubts about regime stability
CubaHeadlines reports a new wave of domestic protests over food shortages, briefly reviving removal speculation and lifting the “Yes” probability
December 31 rises to 60%4%
CubaHeadlines reports a new wave of domestic protests over food shortages, briefly reviving removal speculation and lifting the “Yes” probability
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly backs Díaz‑Canel, providing the regime with an external ally and briefly boosting confidence that the
December 31 dips to 62%3%
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly backs Díaz‑Canel, providing the regime with an external ally and briefly boosting confidence that the leader will stay in power
U.S. officials announce a renewed diplomatic ultimatum: Díaz‑Canel must step down by June 30 for talks to continue, sending removal odds sharply higher
June 30 jumps to 51%14%
U.S. officials announce a renewed diplomatic ultimatum: Díaz‑Canel must step down by June 30 for talks to continue, sending removal odds sharply higher
Al Jazeera reports Diaz‑Canel’s defiant Bay of Pigs anniversary speech, again denying any intention to leave office amid tightened U.S. oil blockade
June 30 drops to 24%14%
Al Jazeera reports Diaz‑Canel’s defiant Bay of Pigs anniversary speech, again denying any intention to leave office amid tightened U.S. oil blockade
U.S. tightens oil blockade on Cuba after Díaz‑Canel’s defiant statements, reviving speculation that Washington may intensify pressure for a leadership change
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
U.S. tightens oil blockade on Cuba after Díaz‑Canel’s defiant statements, reviving speculation that Washington may intensify pressure for a leadership change
Cuban state media re‑affirms Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite ongoing U.S.
June 30 drops to 14%9%
sanctions, confirming the “No” outcome and causing the
Cuban state media rebuffs rumors of Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, confirming he remains in office;
June 30 jumps to 37%14%
the clarification triggers a modest rebound in removal probability
The New York Times notes that, despite Díaz‑Canel’s defiant interview, Trump continues to press for his removal, keeping the “removal” narrative alive and nudging the
December 31 jumps to 65%8%
The New York Times notes that, despite Díaz‑Canel’s defiant interview, Trump continues to press for his removal, keeping the “removal” narrative alive and nudging the
The New York Times notes that, despite U.S.
pressure, Díaz‑Canel has not been asked to resign in any formal deal, underscoring the lack of a concrete removal plan
Politico reports Díaz‑Canel vows to give his life for the revolution and dismisses U.S.
December 31 dips to 56%3%
“take‑over” threats, further cementing his resolve and nudging odds upward
Politico interview: Diaz‑Canel vows “no fear” of Trump and says he would give his life for the revolution, reinforcing his personal resolve to stay in power
June 30 drops to 38%10%
Politico interview: Diaz‑Canel vows “no fear” of Trump and says he would give his life for the revolution, reinforcing his personal resolve to stay in power
A viral Facebook poll asked Cubans if Díaz‑Canel should leave power;
December 31 jumps to 65%8%
an overwhelming “yes” response revived speculation of internal dissent, nudging the
A viral Facebook poll asks “Do you want Díaz‑Canel to leave power?” and shows an overwhelming “yes” response, briefly reviving speculation of popular pressure
June 30 drops to 19%7%
A viral Facebook poll asks “Do you want Díaz‑Canel to leave power?” and shows an overwhelming “yes” response, briefly reviving speculation of popular pressure
A viral Facebook poll asked Cubans “Do you want Díaz‑Canel to leave power?” and showed an overwhelming “yes,” briefly lifting “Yes” odds before the president’s next statement
December 31 rises to 60%2%
A viral Facebook poll asked Cubans “Do you want Díaz‑Canel to leave power?” and showed an overwhelming “yes,” briefly lifting “Yes” odds before the president’s next statement
El País publishes Díaz‑Canel’s statement to NBC that he has “no intention of resigning,” reinforcing his defiance and pushing odds down
December 31 dips to 57%4%
El País publishes Díaz‑Canel’s statement to NBC that he has “no intention of resigning,” reinforcing his defiance and pushing odds down
In his first U.S. TV interview (NBC’s Meet the Press), Díaz‑Canel emphatically declares “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” directly countering U.S. demands and causing
June 30 plunges to 24%17%
In his first U.S. TV interview (NBC’s Meet the Press), Díaz‑Canel emphatically declares “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” directly countering U.S. demands and causing a sharp
El País publishes Díaz‑Canel’s interview in which he declares “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” further dampening removal speculation
December 31 drops to 55%9%
El País publishes Díaz‑Canel’s interview in which he declares “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” further dampening removal speculation
Cuban president repeats refusal to resign on NBC while Russia publicly backs Cuba, further lowering odds of removal
June 30 dips to 26%2%
Cuban president repeats refusal to resign on NBC while Russia publicly backs Cuba, further lowering odds of removal
El País interview: Díaz‑Canel declares “stepping down is not in our vocabulary,” reaffirming his hold on power and pulling the
December 31 dips to 55%1%
El País interview: Díaz‑Canel declares “stepping down is not in our vocabulary,” reaffirming his hold on power and pulling the
Díaz-Canel publicly states he will not resign despite U.S.
June 30 plunges to 25%15%
pressure and condemns the U.S. blockade worsening Cuba’s crisis, reinforcing his hold on power and pushing market down
Diaz‑Canel’s first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press — he flatly rejects stepping down, saying “resignation is not in our vocabulary,” and Russia pledges continued support
June 30 dips to 48%3%
Diaz‑Canel’s first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press — he flatly rejects stepping down, saying “resignation is not in our vocabulary,” and Russia pledges continued support
In his first U.S. interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Díaz‑Canel states he will not resign despite U.S.
June 30 drops to 23%10%
pressure, while Russian officials publicly pledge support for Cuba, causing a steep decline in removal odds
In his first U.S. TV interview, Díaz‑Canel tells NBC’s “Meet the Press” he will not step down, calming market fears
December 31 plunges to 56%18%
In his first U.S. TV interview, Díaz‑Canel tells NBC’s “Meet the Press” he will not step down, calming market fears
In a televised interview with NBC, Díaz‑Canel again rejects resignation, while Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana, signaling Moscow’s backing of the
June 30 drops to 24%11%
In a televised interview with NBC, Díaz‑Canel again rejects resignation, while Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana, signaling Moscow’s backing of the regime
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly pledges unwavering support for Cuba, reinforcing Díaz‑Canel’s external backing and further depressing
June 30 drops to 19%5%
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly pledges unwavering support for Cuba, reinforcing Díaz‑Canel’s external backing and further depressing “out” odds
Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov arrived in Havana for talks, signaling continued Russian backing of Díaz‑Canel and nudging the market slightly higher
December 31 rises to 58%2%
Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov arrived in Havana for talks, signaling continued Russian backing of Díaz‑Canel and nudging the market slightly higher
Al Jazeera reports Díaz‑Canel’s defiant stance against U.S.
June 30 drops to 23%12%
pressure and a tightened oil blockade, underscoring regime stability and pushing the
El País interview: Díaz‑Canel declares “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” reinforcing his resolve and driving the market down further
June 30 drops to 35%10%
El País interview: Díaz‑Canel declares “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” reinforcing his resolve and driving the market down further
Díaz‑Canel appears on NBC’s Meet the Press and unequivocally states he will not resign, while Russian officials pledge support for Cuba
June 30 drops to 22%12%
Díaz‑Canel appears on NBC’s Meet the Press and unequivocally states he will not resign, while Russian officials pledge support for Cuba
The same day, Cuban state TV repeated Díaz‑Canel’s “no‑resign” stance, further anchoring trader confidence that he would stay in office
December 31 plunges to 62%16%
The same day, Cuban state TV repeated Díaz‑Canel’s “no‑resign” stance, further anchoring trader confidence that he would stay in office
During his first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Díaz‑Canel flatly said he would not resign under U.S.
December 31 surges to 78%21%
pressure, while Russia pledged continued support, pushing the market sharply higher
Al Jazeera reports Díaz-Canel vows to resist U.S.
June 30 dips to 22%3%
demands to resign amid tightened oil blockade, further reducing market expectations of his removal
In his first U.S. TV interview (NBC’s Meet the Press), Díaz‑Canel flatly refused to resign, stating “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” which caused the
December 31 drops to 57%14%
In his first U.S. TV interview (NBC’s Meet the Press), Díaz‑Canel flatly refused to resign, stating “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” which caused the
During his first interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, Díaz‑Canel emphatically states “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” directly rejecting U.S.
December 31 drops to 57%9%
demands and temporarily dampening market optimism
Díaz‑Canel’s first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press – he flatly refuses to resign, saying “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary” – reinforcing his hold on power
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Díaz‑Canel’s first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press – he flatly refuses to resign, saying “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary” – reinforcing his hold on power and lifting odds
In his first U.S. TV interview (NBC Meet the Press), Díaz‑Canel flatly rejected any resignation demand, causing the market to tumble
December 31 plunges to 56%23%
In his first U.S. TV interview (NBC Meet the Press), Díaz‑Canel flatly rejected any resignation demand, causing the market to tumble
Díaz‑Canel sends a recorded UN message warning of severe water and gas shortages, shifting focus to humanitarian issues rather than political change
June 30 drops to 35%14%
Díaz‑Canel sends a recorded UN message warning of severe water and gas shortages, shifting focus to humanitarian issues rather than political change
Díaz‑Canel tells NBC he will only resign if the Cuban people deem him unfit, signalling no voluntary step‑down and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
June 30 plunges to 45%18%
Díaz‑Canel tells NBC he will only resign if the Cuban people deem him unfit, signalling no voluntary step‑down and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Díaz‑Canel gives his first NBC interview, outright rejecting U.S.
June 30 plunges to 28%16%
pressure and saying “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary”
In a recorded UN message, Díaz‑Canel warns that prolonged blackouts are causing water and gas shortages, intensifying domestic unrest and fueling speculation that the regime might
December 31 drops to 66%12%
In a recorded UN message, Díaz‑Canel warns that prolonged blackouts are causing water and gas shortages, intensifying domestic unrest and fueling speculation that the regime might be forced to change leadership
Díaz‑Canel tells NBC he would only resign if the Cuban people deem him unfit, rejecting U.S. demands and causing a
December 31 drops to 56%8%
Díaz‑Canel tells NBC he would only resign if the Cuban people deem him unfit, rejecting U.S. demands and causing a
Díaz‑Canel tells NBC he would only resign if the Cuban people deem him unfit, a rhetorical refusal that temporarily eases pressure and nudges odds down
December 31 drops to 64%9%
Díaz‑Canel tells NBC he would only resign if the Cuban people deem him unfit, a rhetorical refusal that temporarily eases pressure and nudges odds down
NBC interview: Díaz‑Canel says he will resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” but adds he sees no such pressure, calming markets
December 31 drops to 61%12%
NBC interview: Díaz‑Canel says he will resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” but adds he sees no such pressure, calming markets
Al Jazeera publishes an explainer piece on the “Cuba crisis,” highlighting U.S.
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
threats to “de‑industrialise” the island and linking Díaz‑Canel’s removal to the ongoing energy blockade
Al Jazeera explained that, under Cuba’s 2019 constitution, the president could be removed if deemed unable to serve, reminding traders that a legal mechanism exists for his ouster
December 31 drops to 71%7%
Al Jazeera explained that, under Cuba’s 2019 constitution, the president could be removed if deemed unable to serve, reminding traders that a legal mechanism exists for his ouster
Cuban government releases a video showing Díaz‑Canel touring a power‑plant, emphasizing continuity of leadership amid the crisis (small dip)
June 30 dips to 49%1%
Cuban government releases a video showing Díaz‑Canel touring a power‑plant, emphasizing continuity of leadership amid the crisis (small dip)
Cuban president delivers a televised address at the “Nuestra America” convoy, emphasizing Cuba’s willingness to dialogue but refusing any leadership change, which pushes the
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Cuban president delivers a televised address at the “Nuestra America” convoy, emphasizing Cuba’s willingness to dialogue but refusing any leadership change, which pushes the
Díaz‑Canel confirms for the first time that Cuba is holding diplomatic talks with the United States over the oil and energy blockade, suggesting a possible diplomatic resolution
June 30 plunges to 40%15%
Díaz‑Canel confirms for the first time that Cuba is holding diplomatic talks with the United States over the oil and energy blockade, suggesting a possible diplomatic resolution without a leadership change
Cuban government publicly confirms diplomatic talks with the United States to address a severe oil‑blockade‑induced energy crisis, but Díaz‑Canel stresses he will not step down
June 30 plunges to 44%17%
Cuban government publicly confirms diplomatic talks with the United States to address a severe oil‑blockade‑induced energy crisis, but Díaz‑Canel stresses he will not step down
Cuba’s deputy foreign‑minister rejects the U.S.
December 31 dips to 68%2%
demand, saying any talk of Díaz‑Canel’s removal is “categorically” false
Díaz‑Canel delivered a welcome speech at the “Nuestra America” convoy in Havana, signaling continued engagement with foreign partners and no sign of removal
Díaz‑Canel delivered a welcome speech at the “Nuestra America” convoy in Havana, signaling continued engagement with foreign partners and no sign of removal
Díaz‑Canel publicly confirms the diplomatic talks with the United States, acknowledging the severity of the energy blockade and hinting that a settlement could involve political
December 31 jumps to 78%7%
Díaz‑Canel publicly confirms the diplomatic talks with the United States, acknowledging the severity of the energy blockade and hinting that a settlement could involve political concessions
Cuban Vice Foreign Minister categorically denies any negotiation over Díaz-Canel’s removal, signaling regime stability and causing market pullback
June 30 drops to 47%5%
Cuban Vice Foreign Minister categorically denies any negotiation over Díaz-Canel’s removal, signaling regime stability and causing market pullback
Al Jazeera video shows Trump explicitly stating he wants Díaz‑Canel out by year‑end, further fueling speculation of imminent removal
June 30 jumps to 63%13%
Al Jazeera video shows Trump explicitly stating he wants Díaz‑Canel out by year‑end, further fueling speculation of imminent removal
Al Jazeera video shows Trump publicly stating he wants the Cuban president removed by year‑end, reinforcing market expectations of a forced ouster
December 31 rises to 73%4%
Al Jazeera video shows Trump publicly stating he wants the Cuban president removed by year‑end, reinforcing market expectations of a forced ouster
Al Jazeera video repeats Trump administration’s claim it wants Diaz‑Canel removed by year‑end, reviving speculation of a possible ouster
June 30 rises to 51%1%
Al Jazeera video repeats Trump administration’s claim it wants Diaz‑Canel removed by year‑end, reviving speculation of a possible ouster
Al Jazeera video highlights Trump’s public vow to overthrow the Cuban president by year‑end, reinforcing market optimism for a “yes” outcome
December 31 drops to 64%9%
Al Jazeera video highlights Trump’s public vow to overthrow the Cuban president by year‑end, reinforcing market optimism for a “yes” outcome
Díaz‑Canel tells reporters in Havana that “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” reinforcing his resolve and prompting a sharp drop in removal probability
June 30 drops to 38%6%
Díaz‑Canel tells reporters in Havana that “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” reinforcing his resolve and prompting a sharp drop in removal probability
Cuba experienced island‑wide blackouts and fuel shortages;
December 31 surges to 79%17%
Díaz‑Canel publicly blamed the U.S. and hinted at “dramatic” reforms, spurring the market to its highest level of the period
In a March 17 interview Díaz‑Canel admitted recent reforms were “not dramatic enough” to fix Cuba’s crisis, but again rejected stepping down, calming market fears
December 31 jumps to 68%9%
In a March 17 interview Díaz‑Canel admitted recent reforms were “not dramatic enough” to fix Cuba’s crisis, but again rejected stepping down, calming market fears
The New York Times disclosed that U.S.
December 31 jumps to 78%14%
diplomats had explicitly demanded Díaz‑Canel’s resignation to move negotiations forward, pushing the market to its all‑time high
Al Jazeera notes Díaz‑Canel’s public claim that the U.S.
December 31 rises to 74%4%
“won’t fix” Cuba’s problems, while Russia’s aid continues, pushing odds to a market high
ColombiaOne cites the same U.S.
June 30 drops to 51%13%
demand, noting leaked diplomatic cables that Trump personally called for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
The New York Times reveals that senior Trump officials are explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral agreement, sending “Yes” odds to a
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
The New York Times reveals that senior Trump officials are explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral agreement, sending “Yes” odds to a new high
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel out of power as a pre‑condition for economic concessions, raising expectations of a
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel out of power as a pre‑condition for economic concessions, raising expectations of a possible ouster
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is demanding Díaz‑Canel step down as a precondition for any bilateral agreement
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is demanding Díaz‑Canel step down as a precondition for any bilateral agreement
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration has told Havana Díaz‑Canel must step down as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks
June 30 jumps to 64%13%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration has told Havana Díaz‑Canel must step down as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel’s removal as a pre‑condition for negotiations, pushing the
December 31 jumps to 73%13%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel’s removal as a pre‑condition for negotiations, pushing the
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel from power as a pre‑condition for negotiations
June 30 surges to 61%23%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel from power as a pre‑condition for negotiations
The New York Times confirms U.S.
June 30 jumps to 60%11%
officials told Cuban negotiators Díaz-Canel must step aside for broader agreements, fueling market surge
New York Times reveals that U.S.
June 30 jumps to 50%6%
officials have pressed Cuba to remove Díaz‑Canel during negotiations, adding credibility to removal rumors and pushing the
New York Times reports U.S. officials are pressuring Cuba to force Diaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any deal, sparking a short‑term rally in “yes” odds
June 30 drops to 50%6%
New York Times reports U.S. officials are pressuring Cuba to force Diaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any deal, sparking a short‑term rally in “yes” odds
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel step down as a pre‑condition for any U.S.–Cuba negotiations
December 31 rises to 73%3%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel step down as a pre‑condition for any U.S.–Cuba negotiations
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks, sparking a market rally on removal odds
June 30 jumps to 44%11%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks, sparking a market rally on removal odds
Diaz‑Canel confirms secret talks with the Trump administration on fuel shortages, but stresses negotiations are “in early stages,” easing fears of an imminent ouster
June 30 surges to 56%18%
Diaz‑Canel confirms secret talks with the Trump administration on fuel shortages, but stresses negotiations are “in early stages,” easing fears of an imminent ouster
Al Jazeera reports Trump administration publicly demanding Díaz‑Canel step down as a pre‑condition for talks, intensifying market expectations of a leadership change
June 30 jumps to 44%5%
Al Jazeera reports Trump administration publicly demanding Díaz‑Canel step down as a pre‑condition for talks, intensifying market expectations of a leadership change
Díaz‑Canel publicly denounces U.S.
December 31 rises to 56%2%
hostility and reaffirms his leadership amid growing economic and political pressure, signaling resilience and nudging odds up
Díaz‑Canel gives his first U.S.
June 30 drops to 50%13%
TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, flatly refusing to resign and saying “stepping down is not in our vocabulary”
Trump administration announces over 240 new sanctions and declares “Cuba is next,” causing the market’s peak at 63 %
June 30 surges to 63%25%
Trump administration announces over 240 new sanctions and declares “Cuba is next,” causing the market’s peak at 63 %
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel from power as a condition for negotiations, sparking the market’s highest “out”
June 30 drops to 55%8%
The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel from power as a condition for negotiations, sparking the market’s highest “out” level of the period
Al Jazeera reports Trump administration’s explicit goal to remove Díaz-Canel by year-end, reinforcing market peak optimism on his ouster
June 30 surges to 69%27%
Al Jazeera reports Trump administration’s explicit goal to remove Díaz-Canel by year-end, reinforcing market peak optimism on his ouster
Díaz‑Canel appears at a high‑profile funeral alongside Raúl Castro, signalling continuity of the current leadership and pulling odds down
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Díaz‑Canel appears at a high‑profile funeral alongside Raúl Castro, signalling continuity of the current leadership and pulling odds down
A Russian tanker (Anatoly Kolodkin) delivers 730,000 bbl of crude to Cuba – the first oil shipment in three months – easing the energy crisis and sending odds sharply higher
December 31 surges to 70%17%
A Russian tanker (Anatoly Kolodkin) delivers 730,000 bbl of crude to Cuba – the first oil shipment in three months – easing the energy crisis and sending odds sharply higher
Cuban government confirms it has opened “diplomatic talks” with the United States to end the oil blockade, the first public acknowledgment of high‑level negotiations and a
June 30 surges to 51%18%
Cuban government confirms it has opened “diplomatic talks” with the United States to end the oil blockade, the first public acknowledgment of high‑level negotiations and a possible leverage point for U.S. demands on Díaz‑Canel
U.S. tightens oil‑blockade, threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, prompting a sharp market dip
December 31 dips to 53%4%
U.S. tightens oil‑blockade, threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, prompting a sharp market dip
The New York Times reveals Trump administration is pushing for Díaz-Canel’s removal as a condition for meaningful progress in negotiations, intensifying market expectations of
June 30 surges to 42%16%
The New York Times reveals Trump administration is pushing for Díaz-Canel’s removal as a condition for meaningful progress in negotiations, intensifying market expectations of leadership change
U.S. Treasury announces a new oil‑blockade sanction package, tightening the economic squeeze on Cuba and prompting traders to
December 31 jumps to 70%13%
U.S. Treasury announces a new oil‑blockade sanction package, tightening the economic squeeze on Cuba and prompting traders to
U.S. officials, cited by The New York Times, tell Havana that any meaningful progress in negotiations will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, signalling direct U.S.
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
pressure for a leadership change
U.S. officials publicly state that any progress in oil‑blockade talks will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, raising speculation of a forced ouster
June 30 drops to 28%11%
U.S. officials publicly state that any progress in oil‑blockade talks will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, raising speculation of a forced ouster
Cuban state media reports that the Communist Party’s 9th Congress will postpone any leadership‑succession discussion until after year‑end, reducing immediate removal risk
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Cuban state media reports that the Communist Party’s 9th Congress will postpone any leadership‑succession discussion until after year‑end, reducing immediate removal risk
U.S. Treasury announces a tightened oil blockade on Cuba, worsening fuel shortages and reviving speculation that Washington may force a leadership change
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
U.S. Treasury announces a tightened oil blockade on Cuba, worsening fuel shortages and reviving speculation that Washington may force a leadership change
A Kalshi prediction‑platform report gave Díaz‑Canel a 52 % chance of leaving power before 2027, reviving market optimism for a “Yes” outcome
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
A Kalshi prediction‑platform report gave Díaz‑Canel a 52 % chance of leaving power before 2027, reviving market optimism for a “Yes” outcome
A Reuters‑cited report noted that the Trump administration had tightened its oil blockade, intensifying pressure on the Cuban leadership and nudging the
December 31 rises to 64%1%
A Reuters‑cited report noted that the Trump administration had tightened its oil blockade, intensifying pressure on the Cuban leadership and nudging the
U.S. Treasury announces new sanctions targeting Díaz‑Canel’s personal assets, intensifying pressure for a leadership change
December 31 jumps to 63%8%
U.S. Treasury announces new sanctions targeting Díaz‑Canel’s personal assets, intensifying pressure for a leadership change
U.S. officials meet Cuban negotiators in Washington and reiterate the demand for Díaz‑Canel’s step‑down, pushing “yes” to a new high
June 30 jumps to 39%5%
U.S. officials meet Cuban negotiators in Washington and reiterate the demand for Díaz‑Canel’s step‑down, pushing “yes” to a new high
Kalshi’s U.S. prediction‑platform flags a 52 % chance that Díaz‑Canel will leave power before 2027, raising market expectations of a possible ouster
December 31 drops to 56%12%
Kalshi’s U.S. prediction‑platform flags a 52 % chance that Díaz‑Canel will leave power before 2027, raising market expectations of a possible ouster
U.S. Trump administration tightens an oil blockade on Cuba, linking the blockade to a demand for Díaz‑Canel’s removal, raising expectations of a forced ouster
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
U.S. Trump administration tightens an oil blockade on Cuba, linking the blockade to a demand for Díaz‑Canel’s removal, raising expectations of a forced ouster
Reports emerge that U.S. officials demand Díaz-Canel step down for Cuba-U.S.
June 30 jumps to 38%10%
talks to proceed, sparking speculation of forced ouster and increasing market optimism on leadership change
U.S. Treasury announces a new oil‑export ban on Cuba, intensifying the island’s energy crisis and fueling rumors that Washington might push for a leadership change
June 30 rises to 34%4%
U.S. Treasury announces a new oil‑export ban on Cuba, intensifying the island’s energy crisis and fueling rumors that Washington might push for a leadership change
Trump administration publicly states removal of Díaz‑Canel is a pre‑condition for any bilateral negotiations, sparking a brief rally in “yes” odds
June 30 surges to 34%16%
Trump administration publicly states removal of Díaz‑Canel is a pre‑condition for any bilateral negotiations, sparking a brief rally in “yes” odds
U.S. officials tell Cuban negotiators that any bilateral agreement requires Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, raising speculation of a forced ouster
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
U.S. officials tell Cuban negotiators that any bilateral agreement requires Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, raising speculation of a forced ouster
Al Jazeera reports Díaz‑Canel’s defiant interview with NBC, reiterating he will not bow to U.S. demands, pulling the
December 31 dips to 56%4%
Al Jazeera reports Díaz‑Canel’s defiant interview with NBC, reiterating he will not bow to U.S. demands, pulling the
Cuban officials confirmed diplomatic talks with the United States over the island’s energy blockade, raising speculation of a possible leadership change
December 31 drops to 57%5%
Cuban officials confirmed diplomatic talks with the United States over the island’s energy blockade, raising speculation of a possible leadership change
Cuban state television rebroadcast Díaz‑Canel’s statement that he would resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” reinforcing his refusal to step down
December 31 dips to 59%4%
Cuban state television rebroadcast Díaz‑Canel’s statement that he would resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” reinforcing his refusal to step down
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and pledges “unwavering support” for Cuba, bolstering Díaz‑Canel’s position and lifting odds
December 31 rises to 57%3%
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and pledges “unwavering support” for Cuba, bolstering Díaz‑Canel’s position and lifting odds
Cuban state media releases a statement denying any resignation plans despite intensified U.S.
December 31 rises to 60%3%
pressure, calming markets briefly
Cuban officials publicly confirm for the first time that diplomatic talks with the United States are under way to address a crippling oil‑blockade and chronic power outages
December 31 drops to 58%5%
Cuban officials publicly confirm for the first time that diplomatic talks with the United States are under way to address a crippling oil‑blockade and chronic power outages
Cuba announced that diplomatic talks with the United States on the oil‑blockade were under way, reviving doubts about Díaz‑Canel’s longevity
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Cuba announced that diplomatic talks with the United States on the oil‑blockade were under way, reviving doubts about Díaz‑Canel’s longevity
Kalshi prediction platform posts a 52 % probability that Díaz‑Canel will leave power before 2027, sparking speculation of imminent change
December 31 surges to 57%15%
Kalshi prediction platform posts a 52 % probability that Díaz‑Canel will leave power before 2027, sparking speculation of imminent change
Kalshi prediction platform puts probability of Díaz‑Canel leaving power before 2027 at 52 %
June 30 jumps to 33%6%
Kalshi prediction platform puts probability of Díaz‑Canel leaving power before 2027 at 52 %
U.S.‑based Kalshi prediction platform gave Díaz‑Canel a 52 % chance of leaving power before 2027, sparking speculation of an imminent ouster
December 31 surges to 63%22%
U.S.‑based Kalshi prediction platform gave Díaz‑Canel a 52 % chance of leaving power before 2027, sparking speculation of an imminent ouster
U.S. Kalshi platform predicts over 50% chance Díaz-Canel will leave power before 2027, reflecting investor anticipation of instability amid Cuba’s economic crisis and social unrest
June 30 drops to 19%8%
U.S. Kalshi platform predicts over 50% chance Díaz-Canel will leave power before 2027, reflecting investor anticipation of instability amid Cuba’s economic crisis and social unrest
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly demands Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for negotiations, reigniting removal speculation
December 31 jumps to 68%5%
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly demands Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for negotiations, reigniting removal speculation
U.S. President Trump announced a new oil blockade aimed at forcing Díaz‑Canel’s ouster, prompting a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
December 31 surges to 62%21%
U.S. President Trump announced a new oil blockade aimed at forcing Díaz‑Canel’s ouster, prompting a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
Cuban state media releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite intensified U.S.
December 31 surges to 60%20%
pressure, lifting “Yes” odds as the leader’s resolve appears firm
Cuban state TV rebroadcast Díaz‑Canel’s statement that he will only resign if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” dampening speculation of a resignation
June 30 dips to 23%3%
Cuban state TV rebroadcast Díaz‑Canel’s statement that he will only resign if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” dampening speculation of a resignation
Reports emerge that the island’s power‑grid blackouts have reached 22‑hour outages, intensifying public unrest and prompting analysts to raise ouster odds
December 31 jumps to 56%12%
Reports emerge that the island’s power‑grid blackouts have reached 22‑hour outages, intensifying public unrest and prompting analysts to raise ouster odds
Cuban officials categorically denied any U.S.
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
talks about removing Díaz‑Canel, calming fears and pulling the
Cuban state media rebuffs the sanctions, stating Díaz‑Canel will not resign and accusing Washington of “state terrorism”
June 30 drops to 18%6%
Cuban state media rebuffs the sanctions, stating Díaz‑Canel will not resign and accusing Washington of “state terrorism”
Cuban state media shows Díaz‑Canel at a funeral with Raúl Castro, signalling continuity of the current leadership and pulling odds down
December 31 jumps to 54%9%
Cuban state media shows Díaz‑Canel at a funeral with Raúl Castro, signalling continuity of the current leadership and pulling odds down
Díaz‑Canel appears with Raúl Castro at a Havana ceremony honoring Cuban soldiers killed in the U.S.
June 30 dips to 26%1%
intervention in Venezuela, signalling continued elite unity and no sign of a leadership shake‑up
U.S. officials publicly tell Cuban negotiators that any deal is dead‑locked unless Díaz‑Canel steps aside, prompting a sharp drop as the market doubts immediate removal
December 31 drops to 40%13%
U.S. officials publicly tell Cuban negotiators that any deal is dead‑locked unless Díaz‑Canel steps aside, prompting a sharp drop as the market doubts immediate removal
Díaz‑Canel appeared with Raúl Castro at a Havana ceremony honoring Cuban soldiers killed in the U.S.
December 31 drops to 41%11%
intervention in Venezuela, underscoring regime unity
Cuban state media rebuffs U.S. demands, with Díaz‑Canel publicly declaring “stepping down is not in our vocabulary”
December 31 drops to 44%9%
Cuban state media rebuffs U.S. demands, with Díaz‑Canel publicly declaring “stepping down is not in our vocabulary”
Díaz‑Canel and Raúl Castro attend a Havana ceremony honoring 32 Cuban soldiers killed in the U.S.
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
intervention in Venezuela, underscoring the regime’s close ties to Caracas and hinting at possible leverage in U.S. talks
U.S. Treasury announces a new round of sanctions targeting Cuban oil imports, heightening economic pressure on Díaz‑Canel’s regime
June 30 drops to 18%9%
U.S. Treasury announces a new round of sanctions targeting Cuban oil imports, heightening economic pressure on Díaz‑Canel’s regime
Cuban state media reports Díaz‑Canel condemning U.S.
June 30 drops to 20%7%
military strikes in Venezuela, signalling a hard‑line stance and raising speculation about U.S. pressure for his removal
U.S. officials tell Cuban officials that Díaz‑Canel must resign for any meaningful progress in talks, according to four insiders
June 30 dips to 26%1%
U.S. officials tell Cuban officials that Díaz‑Canel must resign for any meaningful progress in talks, according to four insiders
Kalshi’s U.S. prediction‑platform flagged a 52 % chance that Díaz‑Canel would leave power before 2027, raising market expectations of a possible ouster
December 31 drops to 46%10%
Kalshi’s U.S. prediction‑platform flagged a 52 % chance that Díaz‑Canel would leave power before 2027, raising market expectations of a possible ouster
Cuban state TV rebroadcast Díaz‑Canel’s pledge to resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” pulling the market down as traders saw a clear refusal to step aside
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Cuban state TV rebroadcast Díaz‑Canel’s pledge to resign only if “the Cuban people deem him unfit,” pulling the market down as traders saw a clear refusal to step aside
Cuban president condemns U.S. strikes in Venezuela and backs Raúl Castro at a Havana ceremony, signalling continued hard‑line alignment with the regime
June 30 drops to 20%7%
Cuban president condemns U.S. strikes in Venezuela and backs Raúl Castro at a Havana ceremony, signalling continued hard‑line alignment with the regime
CubaHeadlines publishes a viral Facebook poll showing overwhelming Cuban demand for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, pushing odds higher
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
CubaHeadlines publishes a viral Facebook poll showing overwhelming Cuban demand for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, pushing odds higher
Cuban foreign‑minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio categorically denies any U.S.‑Cuba negotiations about removing Díaz‑Canel
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
Cuban foreign‑minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio categorically denies any U.S.‑Cuba negotiations about removing Díaz‑Canel
Al Jazeera reports a “crisis” in Cuba with thousands fleeing by boat, raising fears of a regime collapse and boosting “Yes” odds
December 31 drops to 45%11%
Al Jazeera reports a “crisis” in Cuba with thousands fleeing by boat, raising fears of a regime collapse and boosting “Yes” odds
U.S. Treasury announces a new round of sanctions targeting Cuban oil imports, warning that any deal will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
June 30 dips to 24%3%
U.S. Treasury announces a new round of sanctions targeting Cuban oil imports, warning that any deal will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly demanded Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks, sparking speculation of a leadership shake‑up
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly demanded Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks, sparking speculation of a leadership shake‑up
U.S. officials tell Cuba that President Miguel Díaz‑Canel must step down for negotiations to progress, sparking speculation of a forced ouster
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
U.S. officials tell Cuba that President Miguel Díaz‑Canel must step down for negotiations to progress, sparking speculation of a forced ouster
Kalshi prediction platform posts a 52 % probability that Díaz‑Canel will leave power before Jan 2027, sparking speculation of an imminent ouster
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
Kalshi prediction platform posts a 52 % probability that Díaz‑Canel will leave power before Jan 2027, sparking speculation of an imminent ouster
U.S. officials tell Cuba that President Miguel Díaz‑Canel must step down as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks, sparking speculation of a forced ouster
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
U.S. officials tell Cuba that President Miguel Díaz‑Canel must step down as a pre‑condition for any bilateral talks, sparking speculation of a forced ouster
U.S. officials publicly state that any progress in trade talks will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
December 31 drops to 42%8%
U.S. officials publicly state that any progress in trade talks will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
U.S. officials begin “step‑down” talks with Cuban negotiators, telling Havana that any bilateral agreement requires Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
December 31 drops to 42%8%
U.S. officials begin “step‑down” talks with Cuban negotiators, telling Havana that any bilateral agreement requires Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
U.S. officials begin “step‑down” talks with Cuban negotiators, telling Havana that any bilateral agreement requires Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
December 31 drops to 41%9%
U.S. officials begin “step‑down” talks with Cuban negotiators, telling Havana that any bilateral agreement requires Díaz‑Canel’s resignation
Kalshi prediction platform assigns a 52 % chance that Díaz‑Canel will leave office before 2027, sparking the first rise in “Yes” odds as traders
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Kalshi prediction platform assigns a 52 % chance that Díaz‑Canel will leave office before 2027, sparking the first rise in “Yes” odds as traders
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