Traders on Polymarket price an 84.5% implied probability for March US CPI month-over-month inflation at ≥0.8%, reflecting persistent upward pressures from recent hotter-than-expected data amid sticky shelter costs and services inflation. February's CPI printed at 0.4% MoM—above consensus—fueled by a 0.5% surge in core services excluding shelter, while producer price index rose 0.3% in February, signaling sustained input cost pass-through. Robust labor markets and steady consumer spending have tempered disinflation expectations, diverging from earlier Fed projections for sub-0.3% monthly prints. Upcoming April 10 release looms as a pivotal catalyst ahead of May FOMC, with odds implying trader consensus for renewed policy caution if thresholds exceed 0.8%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥0,8 % 85%
0.7% 12%
0.6% 1.8%
0.4% 1.5%
$416,576 Vol.
$416,576 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
2%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
2%
0.7%
12%
≥0,8 %
85%
≥0,8 % 85%
0.7% 12%
0.6% 1.8%
0.4% 1.5%
$416,576 Vol.
$416,576 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
2%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
2%
0.7%
12%
≥0,8 %
85%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket price an 84.5% implied probability for March US CPI month-over-month inflation at ≥0.8%, reflecting persistent upward pressures from recent hotter-than-expected data amid sticky shelter costs and services inflation. February's CPI printed at 0.4% MoM—above consensus—fueled by a 0.5% surge in core services excluding shelter, while producer price index rose 0.3% in February, signaling sustained input cost pass-through. Robust labor markets and steady consumer spending have tempered disinflation expectations, diverging from earlier Fed projections for sub-0.3% monthly prints. Upcoming April 10 release looms as a pivotal catalyst ahead of May FOMC, with odds implying trader consensus for renewed policy caution if thresholds exceed 0.8%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen