Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention in New York following his January 2026 capture and not guilty plea to a superseding indictment charging narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons possession, and related counts in the Southern District of New York. Recent delays, including a May postponement of the third hearing to June 30 before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, underscore procedural hurdles amid disputes over defense funding—resolved in late April when the US eased sanctions to allow Venezuelan payments. Traders price "No" at 87.5% implied probability, reflecting the narcoterrorism statute's poor full-trial record (few convictions beyond pleas to lesser charges), potential cooperating witnesses like Hugo Carvajal, and risks of acquittals or partial verdicts in complex state-sponsored cases, with no trial date yet set.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$102,578 Vol.
$102,578 Vol.
Ja
$102,578 Vol.
$102,578 Vol.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention in New York following his January 2026 capture and not guilty plea to a superseding indictment charging narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons possession, and related counts in the Southern District of New York. Recent delays, including a May postponement of the third hearing to June 30 before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, underscore procedural hurdles amid disputes over defense funding—resolved in late April when the US eased sanctions to allow Venezuelan payments. Traders price "No" at 87.5% implied probability, reflecting the narcoterrorism statute's poor full-trial record (few convictions beyond pleas to lesser charges), potential cooperating witnesses like Hugo Carvajal, and risks of acquittals or partial verdicts in complex state-sponsored cases, with no trial date yet set.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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