Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities or international bodies, driving traders' 99.5% implied probability on "No" for arrest by March 31. Absent any recent judicial actions, official statements from the DOJ equivalent (Fiscalía General), or credible reporting on charges—such as those related to past policy decisions or Venezuela mediation roles—market consensus reflects the low baseline risk for prosecuting a high-profile ex-leader without substantiated evidence. While late-breaking scandals, sudden charges, or geopolitical escalations could theoretically shift odds, no scheduled hearings or probes loom before the deadline, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$139,396 Vol.
$139,396 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$139,396 Vol.
$139,396 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities or international bodies, driving traders' 99.5% implied probability on "No" for arrest by March 31. Absent any recent judicial actions, official statements from the DOJ equivalent (Fiscalía General), or credible reporting on charges—such as those related to past policy decisions or Venezuela mediation roles—market consensus reflects the low baseline risk for prosecuting a high-profile ex-leader without substantiated evidence. While late-breaking scandals, sudden charges, or geopolitical escalations could theoretically shift odds, no scheduled hearings or probes loom before the deadline, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 15, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volumen
$139,396Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 15, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities or international bodies, driving traders' 99.5% implied probability on "No" for arrest by March 31. Absent any recent judicial actions, official statements from the DOJ equivalent (Fiscalía General), or credible reporting on charges—such as those related to past policy decisions or Venezuela mediation roles—market consensus reflects the low baseline risk for prosecuting a high-profile ex-leader without substantiated evidence. While late-breaking scandals, sudden charges, or geopolitical escalations could theoretically shift odds, no scheduled hearings or probes loom before the deadline, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$139,396Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 15, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities or international bodies, driving traders' 99.5% implied probability on "No" for arrest by March 31. Absent any recent judicial actions, official statements from the DOJ equivalent (Fiscalía General), or credible reporting on charges—such as those related to past policy decisions or Venezuela mediation roles—market consensus reflects the low baseline risk for prosecuting a high-profile ex-leader without substantiated evidence. While late-breaking scandals, sudden charges, or geopolitical escalations could theoretically shift odds, no scheduled hearings or probes loom before the deadline, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing near-certainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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