Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries, with 375k–400k (24.5%) edging 475k+ (23.1%) amid a competitive EV landscape dominated by BYD's aggressive pricing and expanding lineups in China. Q1's 358k deliveries missed estimates but built 50k inventory units, enabling April's 36% YoY China sales surge to ~77k wholesales and explosive European registrations (+100% in key markets), signaling rebound momentum from Giga Shanghai exports. Differentiators include Cybertruck base model ($59k) production ramp at Giga Texas for June deliveries and refreshed Model Y demand, though US registration softness and potential tariff shifts cap upside. Watch late-June push and early-July report for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert375k–400k 25%
475.000+ 23.1%
425–450 Tsd. 16%
450k–475k 14.0%
$41,747 Vol.
$41,747 Vol.
<300k
18%
300.000–325.000
1%
325k–350k
12%
350.000–375.000
15%
375k–400k
25%
400.000–425.000
17%
425–450 Tsd.
19%
450k–475k
19%
475.000+
23%
375k–400k 25%
475.000+ 23.1%
425–450 Tsd. 16%
450k–475k 14.0%
$41,747 Vol.
$41,747 Vol.
<300k
18%
300.000–325.000
1%
325k–350k
12%
350.000–375.000
15%
375k–400k
25%
400.000–425.000
17%
425–450 Tsd.
19%
450k–475k
19%
475.000+
23%
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries, with 375k–400k (24.5%) edging 475k+ (23.1%) amid a competitive EV landscape dominated by BYD's aggressive pricing and expanding lineups in China. Q1's 358k deliveries missed estimates but built 50k inventory units, enabling April's 36% YoY China sales surge to ~77k wholesales and explosive European registrations (+100% in key markets), signaling rebound momentum from Giga Shanghai exports. Differentiators include Cybertruck base model ($59k) production ramp at Giga Texas for June deliveries and refreshed Model Y demand, though US registration softness and potential tariff shifts cap upside. Watch late-June push and early-July report for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen