Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 30% implied probability to zero Gold Cards sold in 2026, driven by ongoing federal lawsuits challenging the program's legality under U.S. immigration statutes—filed in early February—and protracted USCIS vetting via Form I-140G, with no verified approvals despite 70,000 applications since the December 2025 launch under Executive Order 14351. The $1 million post-approval "gift" plus $15,000 fee exceeds EB-5 investment thresholds, fueling skepticism and support for the 1-100 bucket at 19%, while higher tiers lag amid administrative delays and low uptake reported in early March. Resolution hinges on official USCIS issuances for calendar 2026; lawsuit outcomes, processing accelerations, or Platinum Card developments could shift odds toward modest volumes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWie viele Goldkarten wird Trump 2026 verkaufen?
Wie viele Goldkarten wird Trump 2026 verkaufen?
0 30%
1-100 19.4%
101-1k 9.8%
25.000-100.000 9.6%
$123,878 Vol.
$123,878 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
30%
1-100
19%
101-1k
10%
1.000–2.500
8%
2,5k–5k
8%
5.000–10.000
7%
10.000–25.000
7%
25.000-100.000
10%
>100k
5%
0 30%
1-100 19.4%
101-1k 9.8%
25.000-100.000 9.6%
$123,878 Vol.
$123,878 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$23,864 Vol.
30%
1-100
$9,894 Vol.
19%
101-1k
$4,777 Vol.
10%
1.000–2.500
$7,225 Vol.
8%
2,5k–5k
$4,216 Vol.
8%
5.000–10.000
$4,525 Vol.
7%
10.000–25.000
$53,994 Vol.
7%
25.000-100.000
$4,096 Vol.
10%
>100k
$11,285 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 30% implied probability to zero Gold Cards sold in 2026, driven by ongoing federal lawsuits challenging the program's legality under U.S. immigration statutes—filed in early February—and protracted USCIS vetting via Form I-140G, with no verified approvals despite 70,000 applications since the December 2025 launch under Executive Order 14351. The $1 million post-approval "gift" plus $15,000 fee exceeds EB-5 investment thresholds, fueling skepticism and support for the 1-100 bucket at 19%, while higher tiers lag amid administrative delays and low uptake reported in early March. Resolution hinges on official USCIS issuances for calendar 2026; lawsuit outcomes, processing accelerations, or Platinum Card developments could shift odds toward modest volumes.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ET
Volumen
$123,878Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 30% implied probability to zero Gold Cards sold in 2026, driven by ongoing federal lawsuits challenging the program's legality under U.S. immigration statutes—filed in early February—and protracted USCIS vetting via Form I-140G, with no verified approvals despite 70,000 applications since the December 2025 launch under Executive Order 14351. The $1 million post-approval "gift" plus $15,000 fee exceeds EB-5 investment thresholds, fueling skepticism and support for the 1-100 bucket at 19%, while higher tiers lag amid administrative delays and low uptake reported in early March. Resolution hinges on official USCIS issuances for calendar 2026; lawsuit outcomes, processing accelerations, or Platinum Card developments could shift odds toward modest volumes.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$123,878Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 30% implied probability to zero Gold Cards sold in 2026, driven by ongoing federal lawsuits challenging the program's legality under U.S. immigration statutes—filed in early February—and protracted USCIS vetting via Form I-140G, with no verified approvals despite 70,000 applications since the December 2025 launch under Executive Order 14351. The $1 million post-approval "gift" plus $15,000 fee exceeds EB-5 investment thresholds, fueling skepticism and support for the 1-100 bucket at 19%, while higher tiers lag amid administrative delays and low uptake reported in early March. Resolution hinges on official USCIS issuances for calendar 2026; lawsuit outcomes, processing accelerations, or Platinum Card developments could shift odds toward modest volumes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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