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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 31.1%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 28%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 21%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 10%

Polymarket

$15,543,279 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 31.1%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 28%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 21%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 10%

Polymarket

$15,543,279 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$2,699,463 Vol.

31%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$895,900 Vol.

28%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$824,541 Vol.

21%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$795,451 Vol.

10%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$808,466 Vol.

5%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$866,841 Vol.

3%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$1,887,081 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$795,223 Vol.

1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,025,064 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$852,115 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$1,328,542 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$1,137,078 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$1,627,779 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders assign a 30.9% implied probability to zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—narrowly leading one cut (27.5%) and two (20.5%)—reflecting hawkish signals from the March 18 FOMC, where the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot median penciled in just one 25 basis point reduction amid elevated inflation risks. Sticky core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year in February, stable unemployment near 4.4%, and upside pressures from energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict have prompted officials like Richmond Fed's Musalem to deem the current stance appropriate, tempering easing expectations versus softening labor signals. Key differentiators include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward holds or hikes if inflation persists above 2%.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,543,279
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders assign a 30.9% implied probability to zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—narrowly leading one cut (27.5%) and two (20.5%)—reflecting hawkish signals from the March 18 FOMC, where the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot median penciled in just one 25 basis point reduction amid elevated inflation risks. Sticky core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year in February, stable unemployment near 4.4%, and upside pressures from energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict have prompted officials like Richmond Fed's Musalem to deem the current stance appropriate, tempering easing expectations versus softening labor signals. Key differentiators include April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC, which could tip sentiment toward holds or hikes if inflation persists above 2%.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$15,543,279
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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„Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „0 (0 Basispunkte)" mit 31%, gefolgt von „1 (25 Basispunkte)" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 31¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 31% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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