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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 35.8%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 23%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 17%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 9%

Polymarket

$16,089,269 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 35.8%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 23%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 17%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 9%

Polymarket

$16,089,269 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$2,750,522 Vol.

36%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$907,500 Vol.

23%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$835,826 Vol.

17%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$805,202 Vol.

9%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$816,368 Vol.

5%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$906,314 Vol.

2%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$1,927,992 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$815,900 Vol.

1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,057,059 Vol.

1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$952,387 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$1,392,919 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$1,270,709 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$1,650,898 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around minimal Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with no cuts (0 basis points) leading at 35.9% implied probability and one cut (25 bps) at 22.5%, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—beating forecasts of 70,000—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market that diminishes easing needs. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median projects a fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, implying one cut, but upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7% and solid 2.4% GDP growth, amid Middle East tensions spiking oil prices, have fueled hawkish rhetoric from officials like Musalem favoring steady rates. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April FOMC will be pivotal for sentiment shifts.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$16,089,269
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around minimal Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with no cuts (0 basis points) leading at 35.9% implied probability and one cut (25 bps) at 22.5%, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—beating forecasts of 70,000—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market that diminishes easing needs. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median projects a fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, implying one cut, but upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7% and solid 2.4% GDP growth, amid Middle East tensions spiking oil prices, have fueled hawkish rhetoric from officials like Musalem favoring steady rates. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April FOMC will be pivotal for sentiment shifts.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$16,089,269
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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