Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a high of 19°C in Beijing on April 1, driven by official observations from the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Beijing Capital International Airport stations, where hourly readings peaked at 19°C during early afternoon under clear skies and light winds from a dominant anticyclonic high-pressure system. This aligns with short-range forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models, which anticipated mild spring warming without significant intensification, consistent with early April climatological averages of 17–20°C. Realistic challenges would require late-day revision of the official maximum from an overlooked station or measurement error, though temperatures are now declining toward evening lows around 10°C, making higher outcomes improbable. Final CMA daily summary expected shortly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
19°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
20°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$130,336 Vol.
$130,336 Vol.
1. Apr. 2026
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
20°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$130,336 Vol.
$130,336 Vol.
1. Apr. 2026
19°C
$17,499 Vol.
100%
20°C
$16,395 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$12,106 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$11,015 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a high of 19°C in Beijing on April 1, driven by official observations from the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Beijing Capital International Airport stations, where hourly readings peaked at 19°C during early afternoon under clear skies and light winds from a dominant anticyclonic high-pressure system. This aligns with short-range forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models, which anticipated mild spring warming without significant intensification, consistent with early April climatological averages of 17–20°C. Realistic challenges would require late-day revision of the official maximum from an overlooked station or measurement error, though temperatures are now declining toward evening lows around 10°C, making higher outcomes improbable. Final CMA daily summary expected shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volumen
$130,336Enddatum
1. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a high of 19°C in Beijing on April 1, driven by official observations from the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Beijing Capital International Airport stations, where hourly readings peaked at 19°C during early afternoon under clear skies and light winds from a dominant anticyclonic high-pressure system. This aligns with short-range forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models, which anticipated mild spring warming without significant intensification, consistent with early April climatological averages of 17–20°C. Realistic challenges would require late-day revision of the official maximum from an overlooked station or measurement error, though temperatures are now declining toward evening lows around 10°C, making higher outcomes improbable. Final CMA daily summary expected shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$130,336Enddatum
1. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a high of 19°C in Beijing on April 1, driven by official observations from the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Beijing Capital International Airport stations, where hourly readings peaked at 19°C during early afternoon under clear skies and light winds from a dominant anticyclonic high-pressure system. This aligns with short-range forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models, which anticipated mild spring warming without significant intensification, consistent with early April climatological averages of 17–20°C. Realistic challenges would require late-day revision of the official maximum from an overlooked station or measurement error, though temperatures are now declining toward evening lows around 10°C, making higher outcomes improbable. Final CMA daily summary expected shortly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen