Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors Gold (GC) futures closing above $2,400 end of June at 62% implied probability, driven primarily by sticky inflation and rising Fed rate cut expectations. Spot gold holds near $2,335/oz after a 2.1% weekly gain, bolstered by central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD and geopolitical tensions elevating safe-haven flows. A weakening dollar—DXY at 104.2—and falling real yields (10Y TIPS at -0.15%) amplify upside, with CME FedWatch pricing 70% odds of a September cut post-June 11-12 FOMC. Key risks include tomorrow's NFP report; prints above 200K could spark dollar strength and cap gains, while softer data tilts toward bullish resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$45,050 Vol.
$8.000
13%
7.000 $
15%
6.500 $
16%
6.200 $
23%
$6.000
20%
$5.800
20%
5.600 $
39%
5.400 $
39%
5.200 $
48%
5.000 $
59%
4.800 $
65%
4.600 $
74%
$45,050 Vol.
$8.000
13%
7.000 $
15%
6.500 $
16%
6.200 $
23%
$6.000
20%
$5.800
20%
5.600 $
39%
5.400 $
39%
5.200 $
48%
5.000 $
59%
4.800 $
65%
4.600 $
74%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors Gold (GC) futures closing above $2,400 end of June at 62% implied probability, driven primarily by sticky inflation and rising Fed rate cut expectations. Spot gold holds near $2,335/oz after a 2.1% weekly gain, bolstered by central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD and geopolitical tensions elevating safe-haven flows. A weakening dollar—DXY at 104.2—and falling real yields (10Y TIPS at -0.15%) amplify upside, with CME FedWatch pricing 70% odds of a September cut post-June 11-12 FOMC. Key risks include tomorrow's NFP report; prints above 200K could spark dollar strength and cap gains, while softer data tilts toward bullish resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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