Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report (PVI D+9) and similar assessments from Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but the Ventura County-based district's partisan lean—evident in her 56%-44% 2024 victory—positions Democrats strongly ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democratic candidates (including Chris Espinosa, Jacqui Irwin, Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and Liam Hernandez) compete against Republicans like Samuel Gallucci and Michael Koslow. While Republican fundraising leads modestly, historical base rates in safe Democratic seats limit GOP paths; shifts could arise from a surprise top-two Republican advancement, Democratic nominee scandal, or national midterm wave before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertCA-26 Wahlsieger
CA-26 Wahlsieger
$17,935 Vol.
$17,935 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$17,935 Vol.
$17,935 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$9,042 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$8,893 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report (PVI D+9) and similar assessments from Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but the Ventura County-based district's partisan lean—evident in her 56%-44% 2024 victory—positions Democrats strongly ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democratic candidates (including Chris Espinosa, Jacqui Irwin, Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and Liam Hernandez) compete against Republicans like Samuel Gallucci and Michael Koslow. While Republican fundraising leads modestly, historical base rates in safe Democratic seats limit GOP paths; shifts could arise from a surprise top-two Republican advancement, Democratic nominee scandal, or national midterm wave before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$17,935Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report (PVI D+9) and similar assessments from Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but the Ventura County-based district's partisan lean—evident in her 56%-44% 2024 victory—positions Democrats strongly ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democratic candidates (including Chris Espinosa, Jacqui Irwin, Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and Liam Hernandez) compete against Republicans like Samuel Gallucci and Michael Koslow. While Republican fundraising leads modestly, historical base rates in safe Democratic seats limit GOP paths; shifts could arise from a surprise top-two Republican advancement, Democratic nominee scandal, or national midterm wave before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,935Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report (PVI D+9) and similar assessments from Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but the Ventura County-based district's partisan lean—evident in her 56%-44% 2024 victory—positions Democrats strongly ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democratic candidates (including Chris Espinosa, Jacqui Irwin, Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and Liam Hernandez) compete against Republicans like Samuel Gallucci and Michael Koslow. While Republican fundraising leads modestly, historical base rates in safe Democratic seats limit GOP paths; shifts could arise from a surprise top-two Republican advancement, Democratic nominee scandal, or national midterm wave before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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