Trader consensus favors CDU with 52.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent Sonntagsfrage polls from INSA and Infratest dimap amid a fragmented field where AfD, Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition lacks a projected majority, hampered by poor ratings for January's major power outage crisis management affecting 45,000 households, yet CDU holds steady without poll erosion. CDU's momentum builds from its March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory over SPD, signaling national strength under Chancellor Merz, while opposition parties like rising Linke and AfD face hurdles surpassing the 5% threshold for smaller allies FDP and BSW. No major shifts in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to campaign dynamics in this proportional representation system.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 53%
Grüne 12.2%
Linke 11%
SPD 10.2%
$2,535,569 Vol.
$2,535,569 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
53%
Grüne
12%
Linke
11%
SPD
10%
AfD
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
Grüne 12.2%
Linke 11%
SPD 10.2%
$2,535,569 Vol.
$2,535,569 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,294 Vol.
53%
Grüne
$23,306 Vol.
12%
Linke
$8,381 Vol.
11%
SPD
$285,211 Vol.
10%
AfD
$2,176,573 Vol.
7%
BSW
$18,789 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,859 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,157 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 52.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent Sonntagsfrage polls from INSA and Infratest dimap amid a fragmented field where AfD, Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition lacks a projected majority, hampered by poor ratings for January's major power outage crisis management affecting 45,000 households, yet CDU holds steady without poll erosion. CDU's momentum builds from its March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory over SPD, signaling national strength under Chancellor Merz, while opposition parties like rising Linke and AfD face hurdles surpassing the 5% threshold for smaller allies FDP and BSW. No major shifts in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to campaign dynamics in this proportional representation system.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$2,535,569Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 52.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent Sonntagsfrage polls from INSA and Infratest dimap amid a fragmented field where AfD, Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition lacks a projected majority, hampered by poor ratings for January's major power outage crisis management affecting 45,000 households, yet CDU holds steady without poll erosion. CDU's momentum builds from its March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory over SPD, signaling national strength under Chancellor Merz, while opposition parties like rising Linke and AfD face hurdles surpassing the 5% threshold for smaller allies FDP and BSW. No major shifts in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to campaign dynamics in this proportional representation system.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$2,535,569Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 52.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent Sonntagsfrage polls from INSA and Infratest dimap amid a fragmented field where AfD, Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition lacks a projected majority, hampered by poor ratings for January's major power outage crisis management affecting 45,000 households, yet CDU holds steady without poll erosion. CDU's momentum builds from its March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory over SPD, signaling national strength under Chancellor Merz, while opposition parties like rising Linke and AfD face hurdles surpassing the 5% threshold for smaller allies FDP and BSW. No major shifts in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to campaign dynamics in this proportional representation system.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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