Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 77.5% probability of no change in the Bank Rate at the upcoming April 30, 2026, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting sticky UK CPI inflation holding steady at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—amid heightened energy price risks from the Middle East conflict. The BoE's unanimous 9-0 decision to hold rates at 3.75% on March 19 reinforced this positioning, despite softening labor market signals like unemployment rising to 5.2% and wage growth easing to 3.8% over the three months to January. A 21% hike odds stems from potential inflation upside, while cuts below 1% imply growth concerns are outweighed; watch March CPI data due April 22 for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of England im April?
Entscheidung der Bank of England im April?
Keine Änderung 81%
Erhöhung 17.8%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$196,822 Vol.
$196,822 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
81%
Erhöhung
18%
Keine Änderung 81%
Erhöhung 17.8%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$196,822 Vol.
$196,822 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
81%
Erhöhung
18%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 77.5% probability of no change in the Bank Rate at the upcoming April 30, 2026, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting sticky UK CPI inflation holding steady at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—amid heightened energy price risks from the Middle East conflict. The BoE's unanimous 9-0 decision to hold rates at 3.75% on March 19 reinforced this positioning, despite softening labor market signals like unemployment rising to 5.2% and wage growth easing to 3.8% over the three months to January. A 21% hike odds stems from potential inflation upside, while cuts below 1% imply growth concerns are outweighed; watch March CPI data due April 22 for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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