Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford, holding AR-01 since 2010, commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of victory after cruising unopposed through the March primary, while Democrat Caitlin Draper advanced in a low-turnout contest. The district's R+16 partisan lean—evidenced by Trump's 64% haul in 2020—and Crawford's fundraising edge solidify this positioning, with all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Race to the WH) rating it Solid Republican absent polling. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks. Late surprises like a Crawford scandal, health issue, or unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in early voting could challenge this, though structural advantages favor continuity through the November 5 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAR-01 Wahlsieger
AR-01 Wahlsieger
$15,061 Vol.
$15,061 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
94%
Demokratische Partei
7%
$15,061 Vol.
$15,061 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$10,879 Vol.
94%
Demokratische Partei
$4,183 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford, holding AR-01 since 2010, commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of victory after cruising unopposed through the March primary, while Democrat Caitlin Draper advanced in a low-turnout contest. The district's R+16 partisan lean—evidenced by Trump's 64% haul in 2020—and Crawford's fundraising edge solidify this positioning, with all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Race to the WH) rating it Solid Republican absent polling. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks. Late surprises like a Crawford scandal, health issue, or unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in early voting could challenge this, though structural advantages favor continuity through the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$15,061Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford, holding AR-01 since 2010, commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of victory after cruising unopposed through the March primary, while Democrat Caitlin Draper advanced in a low-turnout contest. The district's R+16 partisan lean—evidenced by Trump's 64% haul in 2020—and Crawford's fundraising edge solidify this positioning, with all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Race to the WH) rating it Solid Republican absent polling. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks. Late surprises like a Crawford scandal, health issue, or unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in early voting could challenge this, though structural advantages favor continuity through the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$15,061Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford, holding AR-01 since 2010, commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of victory after cruising unopposed through the March primary, while Democrat Caitlin Draper advanced in a low-turnout contest. The district's R+16 partisan lean—evidenced by Trump's 64% haul in 2020—and Crawford's fundraising edge solidify this positioning, with all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Race to the WH) rating it Solid Republican absent polling. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks. Late surprises like a Crawford scandal, health issue, or unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in early voting could challenge this, though structural advantages favor continuity through the November 5 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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