In early January 2026, U.S. forces conducted targeted military strikes in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife without establishing a ground occupation or broader intervention, prompting debates over whether it constituted a full invasion. This operation, described by administration officials as a limited extraction, has since led to diplomatic normalization, including a March 5 agreement to reestablish bilateral ties with Venezuela's interim authorities and the March 30 resumption of U.S. Embassy operations in Caracas. Recent U.S. threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez underscore ongoing tensions, but no troop deployments or escalation signals have emerged. Traders weigh President Trump's rhetoric on oil infrastructure investments and potential future actions against de-escalation trends and historical aversion to prolonged Latin American military engagements, with key resolution tied to explicit invasion definitions like boots-on-the-ground operations by market deadlines.