Traders view Pakistan as the frontrunner at 50.5% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by recent overtures from Pakistani officials offering Islamabad as a neutral venue amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions and US sanctions pressures. Following bilateral talks in late April between Pakistan's army chief and Iranian leaders, plus Islamabad's role in regional mediation like Afghanistan peace efforts, sentiment favors its diplomatic infrastructure over traditional hosts like Oman (4.3%) or Turkey (9.7%). The 24% odds on no meeting by June 30 reflect scheduling uncertainties, lack of official announcements, and potential disruptions from military escalations or US election dynamics, with upcoming UN sessions or IAEA reports as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Pakistan 51%
No Meeting by June 30 24%
Turkey 9.8%
Oman 4.5%
$166,724 交易量
$166,724 交易量
Pakistan
51%
No Meeting by June 30
24%
Turkey
10%
Oman
5%
Qatar
3%
Egypt
2%
Switzerland
2%
Other
2%
UAE
1%
Other - Europe
1%
USA
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Russia
<1%
Austria
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Iran
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Italy
<1%
Pakistan 51%
No Meeting by June 30 24%
Turkey 9.8%
Oman 4.5%
$166,724 交易量
$166,724 交易量
Pakistan
51%
No Meeting by June 30
24%
Turkey
10%
Oman
5%
Qatar
3%
Egypt
2%
Switzerland
2%
Other
2%
UAE
1%
Other - Europe
1%
USA
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Russia
<1%
Austria
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Iran
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Italy
<1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view Pakistan as the frontrunner at 50.5% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by recent overtures from Pakistani officials offering Islamabad as a neutral venue amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions and US sanctions pressures. Following bilateral talks in late April between Pakistan's army chief and Iranian leaders, plus Islamabad's role in regional mediation like Afghanistan peace efforts, sentiment favors its diplomatic infrastructure over traditional hosts like Oman (4.3%) or Turkey (9.7%). The 24% odds on no meeting by June 30 reflect scheduling uncertainties, lack of official announcements, and potential disruptions from military escalations or US election dynamics, with upcoming UN sessions or IAEA reports as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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