Market icon
科技·OpenAI

山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？

Market icon
科技·OpenAI

山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？

$40,968 交易量

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$40,968 交易量

Polymarket

2026年6月30日

$14,622 交易量

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$40,968
结束日期
Dec 31, 2025
市场开放时间
Nov 6, 2025, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader sentiment on Sam Altman's potential incarceration reflects negligible implied probability—under 5%—driven primarily by the stark absence of any credible criminal investigations or charges against him, despite high-profile civil lawsuits targeting OpenAI over copyright infringement from The New York Times and authors. Recent developments, including OpenAI's robust partnerships with Microsoft and advancements toward GPT-5, underscore Altman's strengthened position post-2023 board saga, with no DOJ probes materializing from congressional AI safety hearings. Competitive dynamics in the AI race favor incumbents like OpenAI, while regulatory scrutiny remains civil and industry-wide; key watchpoints include FTC antitrust reviews of big tech AI deals by Q1 2025, though personal liability for Altman stays speculative at best.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年6月30日"，概率为 2%，其次是"2025年12月31日"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 2¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 2%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？"已产生 $41K 的总交易量（自Nov 7, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？"的当前领先者是"2026年6月30日"，仅有 2%，"2025年12月31日"紧随其后为 0%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"山姆·奥尔特曼在监狱里... ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。