Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "How to Make a Killing" achieving a Rotten Tomatoes score of 57% or higher, with negligible odds for 58%+, reflecting the film's current Tomatometer standing at exactly 57% based on initial critic reviews following its recent premiere. This positioning stems from mixed early reception—praise for its tense heist premise and strong performances clashing with criticisms of formulaic plotting and pacing—yielding a precise split among the first batch of reviews, now sufficient for stabilization per Rotten Tomatoes criteria. The score's firmness is bolstered by the lack of additional major outlets weighing in post-embargo, aligning with historical patterns where limited-release indies see minimal late swings. An upset to 58%+ would require an improbable surge of positive late reviews from holdout critics, while a drop below 57% seems off the table absent widespread backlash. Watch for any festival screenings or streaming debut metrics that could prompt further critiques ahead of wide release.