Trader consensus favors a Wellington high of 20°C at 30% implied probability, closely rivaled by 21°C (27.5%), driven by MetService's latest forecast pinning the daytime maximum near 20°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerlies. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS converge on a 19.5–20.5°C mean, with a tight spread reflecting short-range predictability in the city's maritime climate, where sea breezes cap extremes. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud variability—persistent cover tilts toward 19°C or 18°C (18.5% and 18%), while fuller insolation could push to 21–22°C (16%). Historical March 24 averages 19.2°C, but mild high-pressure ridging adds upside warmth, with hourly MetService updates key for late shifts.