Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a cluster of warmer members under a high-pressure ridge building over the central Mediterranean, potentially advecting subtropical air northward. Recent ARPA Lombardia observations confirm late-March highs averaging 19-22°C—well above the early-April climatological norm of 17°C—amid mild, sunny conditions from a blocking pattern. Competing outcomes around 20-22°C (21% each) reflect core model consensus, though inherent uncertainty in 5-day numerical weather prediction (NWP) arises from steering winds and cloud cover variability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z run for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Milan on April 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 4?
23°C or higher 25%
19°C 22.9%
21°C 23%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
11%
16°C
15%
17°C
15%
18°C
17%
19°C
23%
20°C
19%
21°C
23%
22°C
18%
23°C or higher
25%
23°C or higher 25%
19°C 22.9%
21°C 23%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
$350 交易量
1%
14°C
$290 交易量
1%
15°C
$60 交易量
11%
16°C
$10 交易量
15%
17°C
$10 交易量
15%
18°C
$0 交易量
17%
19°C
$0 交易量
23%
20°C
$10 交易量
19%
21°C
$10 交易量
23%
22°C
$0 交易量
18%
23°C or higher
$0 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a cluster of warmer members under a high-pressure ridge building over the central Mediterranean, potentially advecting subtropical air northward. Recent ARPA Lombardia observations confirm late-March highs averaging 19-22°C—well above the early-April climatological norm of 17°C—amid mild, sunny conditions from a blocking pattern. Competing outcomes around 20-22°C (21% each) reflect core model consensus, though inherent uncertainty in 5-day numerical weather prediction (NWP) arises from steering winds and cloud cover variability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z run for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
交易量
$741结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a cluster of warmer members under a high-pressure ridge building over the central Mediterranean, potentially advecting subtropical air northward. Recent ARPA Lombardia observations confirm late-March highs averaging 19-22°C—well above the early-April climatological norm of 17°C—amid mild, sunny conditions from a blocking pattern. Competing outcomes around 20-22°C (21% each) reflect core model consensus, though inherent uncertainty in 5-day numerical weather prediction (NWP) arises from steering winds and cloud cover variability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z run for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$741结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a cluster of warmer members under a high-pressure ridge building over the central Mediterranean, potentially advecting subtropical air northward. Recent ARPA Lombardia observations confirm late-March highs averaging 19-22°C—well above the early-April climatological norm of 17°C—amid mild, sunny conditions from a blocking pattern. Competing outcomes around 20-22°C (21% each) reflect core model consensus, though inherent uncertainty in 5-day numerical weather prediction (NWP) arises from steering winds and cloud cover variability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z run for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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