Recent medium-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models have traders assigning a 44.5% implied probability to a high of 23°C or higher in Beijing on April 4, reflecting projections of above-normal spring temperatures across eastern China amid NOAA's forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions through May 2026 (55% chance). Climatological early April highs average 19-20°C based on 1991-2020 normals, with historical peaks on April 4 reaching 27.1°C, but the market's spread—21% each for 18°C and 19°C—highlights uncertainty from variable cloud cover, northerly winds, and model divergences typical at 5-day lead times. China Meteorological Administration advisories in the next 24-48 hours could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
23°C or higher 44%
19°C 22%
18°C 19%
16°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
3%
14°C
14%
15°C
16%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
22%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
14%
23°C or higher
44%
23°C or higher 44%
19°C 22%
18°C 19%
16°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
$25 交易量
3%
14°C
$0 交易量
14%
15°C
$0 交易量
16%
16°C
$0 交易量
18%
17°C
$0 交易量
18%
18°C
$5 交易量
19%
19°C
$0 交易量
22%
20°C
$0 交易量
18%
21°C
$0 交易量
18%
22°C
$0 交易量
14%
23°C or higher
$54 交易量
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent medium-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models have traders assigning a 44.5% implied probability to a high of 23°C or higher in Beijing on April 4, reflecting projections of above-normal spring temperatures across eastern China amid NOAA's forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions through May 2026 (55% chance). Climatological early April highs average 19-20°C based on 1991-2020 normals, with historical peaks on April 4 reaching 27.1°C, but the market's spread—21% each for 18°C and 19°C—highlights uncertainty from variable cloud cover, northerly winds, and model divergences typical at 5-day lead times. China Meteorological Administration advisories in the next 24-48 hours could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
交易量
$84结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent medium-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models have traders assigning a 44.5% implied probability to a high of 23°C or higher in Beijing on April 4, reflecting projections of above-normal spring temperatures across eastern China amid NOAA's forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions through May 2026 (55% chance). Climatological early April highs average 19-20°C based on 1991-2020 normals, with historical peaks on April 4 reaching 27.1°C, but the market's spread—21% each for 18°C and 19°C—highlights uncertainty from variable cloud cover, northerly winds, and model divergences typical at 5-day lead times. China Meteorological Administration advisories in the next 24-48 hours could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$84结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent medium-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models have traders assigning a 44.5% implied probability to a high of 23°C or higher in Beijing on April 4, reflecting projections of above-normal spring temperatures across eastern China amid NOAA's forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions through May 2026 (55% chance). Climatological early April highs average 19-20°C based on 1991-2020 normals, with historical peaks on April 4 reaching 27.1°C, but the market's spread—21% each for 18°C and 19°C—highlights uncertainty from variable cloud cover, northerly winds, and model divergences typical at 5-day lead times. China Meteorological Administration advisories in the next 24-48 hours could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题