Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for Comex gold futures (GC) settling above $2,350 by June 28 close, driven primarily by elevated Fed funds futures implying three 25bp rate cuts by year-end amid cooling inflation and softening labor data. Spot gold trades near $2,325/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index at 104.5 and sustained central bank buying from China and India, though ETF outflows signal short-term caution. Key risks include hotter-than-expected June CPI (June 12) or hawkish FOMC rhetoric (June 11-12), potentially capping upside; watch $2,400 resistance for breakout confirmation amid $15B in managed money longs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$24,071 交易量
8,000美元
2%
$7,000
13%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
6,000美元
10%
5,800美元
22%
5,600美元
26%
$5,400
28%
5,200美元
40%
$5,000
38%
4,800美元
46%
$4,600
51%
$24,071 交易量
8,000美元
2%
$7,000
13%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
6,000美元
10%
5,800美元
22%
5,600美元
26%
$5,400
28%
5,200美元
40%
$5,000
38%
4,800美元
46%
$4,600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市场开放时间: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
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0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for Comex gold futures (GC) settling above $2,350 by June 28 close, driven primarily by elevated Fed funds futures implying three 25bp rate cuts by year-end amid cooling inflation and softening labor data. Spot gold trades near $2,325/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index at 104.5 and sustained central bank buying from China and India, though ETF outflows signal short-term caution. Key risks include hotter-than-expected June CPI (June 12) or hawkish FOMC rhetoric (June 11-12), potentially capping upside; watch $2,400 resistance for breakout confirmation amid $15B in managed money longs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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