With national selections largely complete and semi-final running orders revealed on April 2, trader consensus on Polymarket and bookmakers crowns Finland as the top favorite for a Eurovision 2026 top-five finish in Vienna, propelled by Erika Vikman's "Liekinheitin" earning strong UMK jury scores alongside televote potential reminiscent of past Nordic hits. France's internal pick Monroe ("Regarde!"), Denmark, Greece, and Australia trail closely, buoyed by critical buzz and staging previews, though boycotts by Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain have reshaped the field. Momentum hinges on rehearsals starting soon, with semis on May 12/14 and Grand Final May 16; historical televote surges or jury snubs could upend frontrunners amid the EBU's split voting system.