Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for repealing the federal cap on gambling loss deductions—limited to winnings under IRC Section 165(d)—before 2027, driven by scant legislative momentum amid competing tax priorities. Post-2024 election lame duck session focuses on averting government shutdown via continuing resolution and initial debt ceiling talks, sidelining niche reforms like this. Incoming Republican trifecta eyes TCJA extension and corporate tax cuts via House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees starting January 2025, but no bills, hearings, or endorsements have advanced gambling-specific changes despite sports betting growth. Absent a high-profile champion or crisis trigger, traders see structural barriers in crowded appropriations and reconciliation timelines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for repealing the federal cap on gambling loss deductions—limited to winnings under IRC Section 165(d)—before 2027, driven by scant legislative momentum amid competing tax priorities. Post-2024 election lame duck session focuses on averting government shutdown via continuing resolution and initial debt ceiling talks, sidelining niche reforms like this. Incoming Republican trifecta eyes TCJA extension and corporate tax cuts via House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees starting January 2025, but no bills, hearings, or endorsements have advanced gambling-specific changes despite sports betting growth. Absent a high-profile champion or crisis trigger, traders see structural barriers in crowded appropriations and reconciliation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for repealing the federal cap on gambling loss deductions—limited to winnings under IRC Section 165(d)—before 2027, driven by scant legislative momentum amid competing tax priorities. Post-2024 election lame duck session focuses on averting government shutdown via continuing resolution and initial debt ceiling talks, sidelining niche reforms like this. Incoming Republican trifecta eyes TCJA extension and corporate tax cuts via House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees starting January 2025, but no bills, hearings, or endorsements have advanced gambling-specific changes despite sports betting growth. Absent a high-profile champion or crisis trigger, traders see structural barriers in crowded appropriations and reconciliation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for repealing the federal cap on gambling loss deductions—limited to winnings under IRC Section 165(d)—before 2027, driven by scant legislative momentum amid competing tax priorities. Post-2024 election lame duck session focuses on averting government shutdown via continuing resolution and initial debt ceiling talks, sidelining niche reforms like this. Incoming Republican trifecta eyes TCJA extension and corporate tax cuts via House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees starting January 2025, but no bills, hearings, or endorsements have advanced gambling-specific changes despite sports betting growth. Absent a high-profile champion or crisis trigger, traders see structural barriers in crowded appropriations and reconciliation timelines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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