Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 82% of the vote, far outpacing rivals and signaling strong party unity in deeply red Arkansas, where Donald Trump won by 31 points in 2024. A recent poll shows Cotton leading Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, a 22-point margin reflecting his incumbency advantage and the state's consistent Republican dominance in Senate races. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 93%, embodying the wisdom of crowds amid limited Democratic path to victory through rural strongholds. While late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national anti-GOP wave could narrow odds, current polling trends and historical base rates for safe seats present significant barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
93%
民主党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 82% of the vote, far outpacing rivals and signaling strong party unity in deeply red Arkansas, where Donald Trump won by 31 points in 2024. A recent poll shows Cotton leading Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, a 22-point margin reflecting his incumbency advantage and the state's consistent Republican dominance in Senate races. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 93%, embodying the wisdom of crowds amid limited Democratic path to victory through rural strongholds. While late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national anti-GOP wave could narrow odds, current polling trends and historical base rates for safe seats present significant barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 82% of the vote, far outpacing rivals and signaling strong party unity in deeply red Arkansas, where Donald Trump won by 31 points in 2024. A recent poll shows Cotton leading Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, a 22-point margin reflecting his incumbency advantage and the state's consistent Republican dominance in Senate races. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 93%, embodying the wisdom of crowds amid limited Democratic path to victory through rural strongholds. While late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national anti-GOP wave could narrow odds, current polling trends and historical base rates for safe seats present significant barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 82% of the vote, far outpacing rivals and signaling strong party unity in deeply red Arkansas, where Donald Trump won by 31 points in 2024. A recent poll shows Cotton leading Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, a 22-point margin reflecting his incumbency advantage and the state's consistent Republican dominance in Senate races. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 93%, embodying the wisdom of crowds amid limited Democratic path to victory through rural strongholds. While late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national anti-GOP wave could narrow odds, current polling trends and historical base rates for safe seats present significant barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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