Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by ongoing bilateral cooperation on border security and anti-cartel efforts rather than military escalation. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum recently shook up the foreign ministry on April 2, appointing a U.S. relations specialist as secretary amid the prior foreign minister's health-related resignation, signaling prioritization of diplomacy with the Trump administration. Mexican operations targeting cartel leaders like El Mencho earlier this year, combined with Trump's March encouragement for Latin American militaries to combat cartels themselves, have reduced perceived need for U.S. ground intervention. Absent major provocations such as cross-border attacks or diplomatic breakdowns, structural barriers like international backlash and congressional hurdles sustain the low odds of invasion.