Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers submitted a fast-tracked bill to parliament proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), repeal of JCPOA-related laws, and revised nuclear policy. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed institutions are reviewing the option amid claims IAEA inspections facilitate espionage, while experts stress decisions hinge on national interests without bomb pursuits. Traders price "No" at 75% implied probability, reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without acting—and risks of further isolation during war, procedural hurdles like parliamentary approval, and no concrete steps taken as of early April. Upcoming votes or IAEA Board of Governors meetings could influence sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$90,959 交易量
$90,959 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$90,959 交易量
$90,959 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers submitted a fast-tracked bill to parliament proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), repeal of JCPOA-related laws, and revised nuclear policy. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed institutions are reviewing the option amid claims IAEA inspections facilitate espionage, while experts stress decisions hinge on national interests without bomb pursuits. Traders price "No" at 75% implied probability, reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without acting—and risks of further isolation during war, procedural hurdles like parliamentary approval, and no concrete steps taken as of early April. Upcoming votes or IAEA Board of Governors meetings could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$90,959結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers submitted a fast-tracked bill to parliament proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), repeal of JCPOA-related laws, and revised nuclear policy. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed institutions are reviewing the option amid claims IAEA inspections facilitate espionage, while experts stress decisions hinge on national interests without bomb pursuits. Traders price "No" at 75% implied probability, reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without acting—and risks of further isolation during war, procedural hurdles like parliamentary approval, and no concrete steps taken as of early April. Upcoming votes or IAEA Board of Governors meetings could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$90,959結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, Iranian lawmakers submitted a fast-tracked bill to parliament proposing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), repeal of JCPOA-related laws, and revised nuclear policy. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed institutions are reviewing the option amid claims IAEA inspections facilitate espionage, while experts stress decisions hinge on national interests without bomb pursuits. Traders price "No" at 75% implied probability, reflecting historical precedent—Iran has threatened NPT exit since 2004 without acting—and risks of further isolation during war, procedural hurdles like parliamentary approval, and no concrete steps taken as of early April. Upcoming votes or IAEA Board of Governors meetings could influence sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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