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政治·中國

中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？

Market icon
政治·中國

中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？

6月 30

9月 30

12月 31

6月 30, 2027

6月 30

9月 30

12月 31

6月 30, 2027

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$202,243 交易量

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$202,243 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks a commitment to invading Taiwan by 2027, citing prohibitive economic costs, PLA corruption, uneven military modernization, and Beijing's preference for unification without force, driving trader consensus to 79.5% odds against an invasion. Recent gray-zone coercion persists, including China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and Pratas islands in March, but lacks escalation signals like large-scale PLA invasion drills. Bolstering deterrence, the U.S. reaffirmed Taiwan arms sales priority and urged higher defense spending amid ongoing packages, while reduced Chinese air activity near the island reflects a stable equilibrium. Upcoming Taiwan Han Kuang exercises in April could test dynamics, though global conflicts might influence Xi Jinping's calculus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$202,243
結束日期
2027-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks a commitment to invading Taiwan by 2027, citing prohibitive economic costs, PLA corruption, uneven military modernization, and Beijing's preference for unification without force, driving trader consensus to 79.5% odds against an invasion. Recent gray-zone coercion persists, including China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and Pratas islands in March, but lacks escalation signals like large-scale PLA invasion drills. Bolstering deterrence, the U.S. reaffirmed Taiwan arms sales priority and urged higher defense spending amid ongoing packages, while reduced Chinese air activity near the island reflects a stable equilibrium. Upcoming Taiwan Han Kuang exercises in April could test dynamics, though global conflicts might influence Xi Jinping's calculus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$202,243
結束日期
2027-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵台灣嗎？" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？" has generated $202.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？" is "中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵台灣嗎？" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "中國會在2027年12月31日前入侵臺灣嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.