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地緣政治·線人

伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？

Market icon
地緣政治·線人

伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$26,534 交易量

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$26,534 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability that no Iranian agent will face US charges by April 30, driven by the absence of recent Department of Justice indictments or public investigations into new plots. The most notable development remains the March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an IRGC-linked operative charged in 2024 for a foiled assassination scheme, which resolves rather than initiates a case. Defense Secretary Hegseth's March 4 disclosure of a US strike killing the leader of an Iranian unit targeting former President Trump underscores military responses over legal ones. With no scheduled hearings or leaks signaling imminent action, traders see slim odds of reversal absent late-breaking arrests or disclosures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$26,534
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability that no Iranian agent will face US charges by April 30, driven by the absence of recent Department of Justice indictments or public investigations into new plots. The most notable development remains the March 6 federal conviction of Asif Merchant, an IRGC-linked operative charged in 2024 for a foiled assassination scheme, which resolves rather than initiates a case. Defense Secretary Hegseth's March 4 disclosure of a US strike killing the leader of an Iranian unit targeting former President Trump underscores military responses over legal ones. With no scheduled hearings or leaks signaling imminent action, traders see slim odds of reversal absent late-breaking arrests or disclosures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$26,534
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "到4月30日，美國會起訴一名伊朗特工嗎？" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？" has generated $26.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？" is "到4月30日，美國會起訴一名伊朗特工嗎？" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "伊朗客服人員會在4月30日前在美國被收取費用嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.