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政治·主要

VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者

伊萊恩·盧里亞 83%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.9%

Nila Devanath 3.0%

Polymarket
最新

伊萊恩·盧里亞 83%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.9%

Nila Devanath 3.0%

Polymarket
最新

伊萊恩·盧里亞

$1,213 交易量

83%

Matt Strickler

$0 交易量

4%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 交易量

4%

Nila Devanath

$794 交易量

3%

尼古勞斯·斯萊斯特

$0 交易量

3%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,509 交易量

2%

詹姆斯·奧西夫

$1,097 交易量

7%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary, driven by her incumbency experience from 2019-2023, dominant Q1 2026 fundraising of $1.75 million raised and $2.3 million cash-on-hand reported April 15, and DCCC placement on its Red to Blue target list in February signaling party backing. James Osyf trails at 7.4% despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to consolidate anti-Kiggans efforts, with residual support from early momentum. Challengers like Matt Strickler and Burk Stringfellow at 4% each reflect limited name recognition and resources ahead of the June primary. Luria's financial edge and district familiarity position her strongly, though a major scandal or late consolidation could shift odds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$4,613
結束日期
2026-06-16
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary, driven by her incumbency experience from 2019-2023, dominant Q1 2026 fundraising of $1.75 million raised and $2.3 million cash-on-hand reported April 15, and DCCC placement on its Red to Blue target list in February signaling party backing. James Osyf trails at 7.4% despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to consolidate anti-Kiggans efforts, with residual support from early momentum. Challengers like Matt Strickler and Burk Stringfellow at 4% each reflect limited name recognition and resources ahead of the June primary. Luria's financial edge and district familiarity position her strongly, though a major scandal or late consolidation could shift odds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$4,613
結束日期
2026-06-16
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "伊萊恩·盧里亞" at 83%, followed by "詹姆斯·奧西夫" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者" is "伊萊恩·盧里亞" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "詹姆斯·奧西夫" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-02民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.