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地緣政治·伊朗

U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?

Market icon
地緣政治·伊朗

U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?

<1% 機率
Polymarket

$495,157 交易量

<1% 機率
Polymarket

$495,157 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
交易量
$495,157
結束日期
2024-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 22, 2024, 10:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

已提議結果: No

無爭議

最終結果: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
交易量
$495,157
結束日期
2024-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 22, 2024, 10:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

已提議結果: No

無爭議

最終結果: No

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?" has generated $495.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 22, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.