Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity—48% to 28% in the latest Franklin & Marshall survey (late February to early March) and similar margins in Quinnipiac and other recent polls. Shapiro's 50% approval rating, 15-to-1 fundraising advantage through 2025, and unchallenged primary path bolster his frontrunner status in this swing state battleground. With the May 19 primary unlikely to alter the matchup, realistic challenges include a major scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency advantages, or a post-primary Republican surge amid national midterm dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主黨
94%
共和黨
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主黨
$0 交易量
94%
共和黨
$9,085 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity—48% to 28% in the latest Franklin & Marshall survey (late February to early March) and similar margins in Quinnipiac and other recent polls. Shapiro's 50% approval rating, 15-to-1 fundraising advantage through 2025, and unchallenged primary path bolster his frontrunner status in this swing state battleground. With the May 19 primary unlikely to alter the matchup, realistic challenges include a major scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency advantages, or a post-primary Republican surge amid national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$9,085結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity—48% to 28% in the latest Franklin & Marshall survey (late February to early March) and similar margins in Quinnipiac and other recent polls. Shapiro's 50% approval rating, 15-to-1 fundraising advantage through 2025, and unchallenged primary path bolster his frontrunner status in this swing state battleground. With the May 19 primary unlikely to alter the matchup, realistic challenges include a major scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency advantages, or a post-primary Republican surge amid national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$9,085結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity—48% to 28% in the latest Franklin & Marshall survey (late February to early March) and similar margins in Quinnipiac and other recent polls. Shapiro's 50% approval rating, 15-to-1 fundraising advantage through 2025, and unchallenged primary path bolster his frontrunner status in this swing state battleground. With the May 19 primary unlikely to alter the matchup, realistic challenges include a major scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency advantages, or a post-primary Republican surge amid national midterm dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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