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政治·中期

奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家

Market icon
政治·中期

奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家

NEW
Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

共和黨

$6,634 交易量

95%

Market icon

民主黨

$0 交易量

5%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. James Lankford's strong position in deeply red Oklahoma drives the 94.5% trader consensus for a GOP Senate winner in November 2026, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—Trump carried it by over 30 points in 2024—and historical base rates where no Democrat has won statewide since the 1990s. No major developments in the past 30 days, including Gov. Stitt's recent appointment of Alan Armstrong to fill the junior Senate vacancy, have shifted odds, as Lankford remains active without announced primary challengers ahead of the June 16 GOP primary. Realistic challenges include a high-profile conservative primary upset fracturing the Republican vote, a surprise Democratic recruit boosting turnout in urban areas like Oklahoma City and Tulsa, or a late scandal, health issue, or national wave eroding incumbency advantages.

Incumbent Republican Sen. James Lankford's strong position in deeply red Oklahoma drives the 94.5% trader consensus for a GOP Senate winner in November 2026, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—Trump carried it by over 30 points in 2024—and historical base rates where no Democrat has won statewide since the 1990s. No major developments in the past 30 days, including Gov. Stitt's recent appointment of Alan Armstrong to fill the junior Senate vacancy, have shifted odds, as Lankford remains active without announced primary challengers ahead of the June 16 GOP primary. Realistic challenges include a high-profile conservative primary upset fracturing the Republican vote, a surprise Democratic recruit boosting turnout in urban areas like Oklahoma City and Tulsa, or a late scandal, health issue, or national wave eroding incumbency advantages.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. James Lankford's strong position in deeply red Oklahoma drives the 94.5% trader consensus for a GOP Senate winner in November 2026, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—Trump carried it by over 30 points in 2024—and historical base rates where no Democrat has won statewide since the 1990s. No major developments in the past 30 days, including Gov. Stitt's recent appointment of Alan Armstrong to fill the junior Senate vacancy, have shifted odds, as Lankford remains active without announced primary challengers ahead of the June 16 GOP primary. Realistic challenges include a high-profile conservative primary upset fracturing the Republican vote, a surprise Democratic recruit boosting turnout in urban areas like Oklahoma City and Tulsa, or a late scandal, health issue, or national wave eroding incumbency advantages.

Incumbent Republican Sen. James Lankford's strong position in deeply red Oklahoma drives the 94.5% trader consensus for a GOP Senate winner in November 2026, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—Trump carried it by over 30 points in 2024—and historical base rates where no Democrat has won statewide since the 1990s. No major developments in the past 30 days, including Gov. Stitt's recent appointment of Alan Armstrong to fill the junior Senate vacancy, have shifted odds, as Lankford remains active without announced primary challengers ahead of the June 16 GOP primary. Realistic challenges include a high-profile conservative primary upset fracturing the Republican vote, a surprise Democratic recruit boosting turnout in urban areas like Oklahoma City and Tulsa, or a late scandal, health issue, or national wave eroding incumbency advantages.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "共和黨" at 95%, followed by "民主黨" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Oct 13, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家" is "共和黨" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "民主黨" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "奧克拉荷馬州參議院選舉贏家" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.