Market icon
政治·主要

紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者

Adriano Espaillat 66%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 28%

奧斯卡·羅梅羅 4.7%

詹姆斯·費爾頓·基思 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Adriano Espaillat 66%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 28%

奧斯卡·羅梅羅 4.7%

詹姆斯·費爾頓·基思 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Adriano Espaillat

$0 交易量

66%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$0 交易量

28%

奧斯卡·羅梅羅

$0 交易量

5%

詹姆斯·費爾頓·基思

$0 交易量

2%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$0 交易量

1%

賈利爾·阿馬多

$0 交易量

1%

梅根·羅德里格斯

$0 交易量

<1%

Matt Miller

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat commands 65% trader consensus in the NY-13 Democratic primary, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand per recent FEC reports, and endorsements from key labor unions like SEIU and local Latino leaders in the district spanning northern Manhattan and the Bronx. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 28%, gains traction from progressive activists critical of Espaillat's foreign policy stances and her recent grassroots canvassing push, though she lags in resources. Minor candidates like Oscar Romero trail amid consolidation toward the top two ahead of the June 25 primary, with no recent polls but historical primary turnout favoring established incumbents in this heavily Democratic, Latino-majority battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$0
結束日期
Jun 23, 2026
市場開放時間
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat commands 65% trader consensus in the NY-13 Democratic primary, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand per recent FEC reports, and endorsements from key labor unions like SEIU and local Latino leaders in the district spanning northern Manhattan and the Bronx. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 28%, gains traction from progressive activists critical of Espaillat's foreign policy stances and her recent grassroots canvassing push, though she lags in resources. Minor candidates like Oscar Romero trail amid consolidation toward the top two ahead of the June 25 primary, with no recent polls but historical primary turnout favoring established incumbents in this heavily Democratic, Latino-majority battleground.

Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat commands 65% trader consensus in the NY-13 Democratic primary, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand per recent FEC reports, and endorsements from key labor unions like SEIU and local Latino leaders in the district spanning northern Manhattan and the Bronx. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 28%, gains traction from progressive activists critical of Espaillat's foreign policy stances and her recent grassroots canvassing push, though she lags in resources. Minor candidates like Oscar Romero trail amid consolidation toward the top two ahead of the June 25 primary, with no recent polls but historical primary turnout favoring established incumbents in this heavily Democratic, Latino-majority battleground.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 66%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 19, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.