Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a <3.0 million TSA passenger throughput for April 4, 2026, at 99.3% implied probability, reflecting the past week's subdued air travel volumes amid post-spring break normalization and Easter weekend positioning. Official TSA data shows consistent sub-3 million screenings: 2.71 million on April 2, 2.36 million on April 1, and 2.15 million on March 31, down from a 2.76 million weekend peak on March 29, signaling a sharp decline from March highs driven by seasonal demand exhaustion. Severe weather threats on Good Friday (April 3) further dampened expectations. Strong positioning holds barring an improbable late Easter surge or data revisions, with official release expected later today.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月4日TSA乘客人數?
4月4日TSA乘客人數?
<3.0M 99.3%
320萬-340萬 <1%
340萬-360萬 <1%
3,000,000-3,200,000 <1%
$11,734 交易量
$11,734 交易量
<3.0M
99%
3,000,000-3,200,000
<1%
320萬-340萬
1%
340萬-360萬
1%
360萬-380萬
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 99.3%
320萬-340萬 <1%
340萬-360萬 <1%
3,000,000-3,200,000 <1%
$11,734 交易量
$11,734 交易量
<3.0M
99%
3,000,000-3,200,000
<1%
320萬-340萬
1%
340萬-360萬
1%
360萬-380萬
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
市場開放時間: Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a <3.0 million TSA passenger throughput for April 4, 2026, at 99.3% implied probability, reflecting the past week's subdued air travel volumes amid post-spring break normalization and Easter weekend positioning. Official TSA data shows consistent sub-3 million screenings: 2.71 million on April 2, 2.36 million on April 1, and 2.15 million on March 31, down from a 2.76 million weekend peak on March 29, signaling a sharp decline from March highs driven by seasonal demand exhaustion. Severe weather threats on Good Friday (April 3) further dampened expectations. Strong positioning holds barring an improbable late Easter surge or data revisions, with official release expected later today.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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