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在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？

Market icon

在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？

Dec 31

Dec 31

奧班－匈牙利總理 53%

迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統 18%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理 6.3%

斯塔默 - 英國首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,737,865 交易量

奧班－匈牙利總理 53%

迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統 18%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理 6.3%

斯塔默 - 英國首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,737,865 交易量

奧班－匈牙利總理

$21,997 交易量

53%

迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統

$16,047 交易量

18%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理

$572,569 交易量

6%

斯塔默 - 英國首相

$557,349 交易量

5%

高市 - 日本首相

$276,545 交易量

3%

普京 - 俄羅斯總統

$350,630 交易量

2%

佩特羅 - 哥倫比亞總統

$12,654 交易量

2%

2027年前沒有

$9,948 交易量

2%

澤連斯基 - 烏克蘭總統

$11,072 交易量

1%

川普 - 美國總統

$203,746 交易量

1%

馬克龍 - 法國總統

$67,941 交易量

1%

阿巴斯－巴勒斯坦總統

$58,110 交易量

1%

習近平－中共中央總書記

$39,413 交易量

1%

桑切斯 - 西班牙首相

$11,107 交易量

1%

羅德里格斯－委內瑞拉代理總統

$20,309 交易量

1%

艾爾多安 - 土耳其總統

$75,554 交易量

1%

紐森 - 加州州長

$113,161 交易量

1%

勒科爾努－法國總理

$40,424 交易量

1%

阿爾巴尼斯 - 澳洲總理

$58,445 交易量

<1%

米萊伊 - 阿根廷總統

$35,311 交易量

<1%

盧拉·達席爾瓦 - 巴西總統

$39,890 交易量

<1%

Sheinbaum - 墨西哥總統

$64,315 交易量

<1%

阿什拉 - 敘利亞總統

$27,985 交易量

<1%

金正恩 - 北韓最高領導人

$24,785 交易量

<1%

梅爾茨 - 德國總理

$28,572 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 53% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by October 2024 scandals involving pardons linked to his aides in child abuse cases, which sparked Budapest's largest protests in over a decade and weakened Fidesz polling ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, amid ongoing economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, hurricane damage, and protests fueling speculation of regime instability despite his term extending to 2028. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% reflects Gaza war prolongation, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet, and corruption trials, though no snap election is imminent before late 2026. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's lower odds at 4.7% stem from early backlash to budget cuts, but his recent landslide majority provides stability. These probabilities highlight skin-in-the-game assessments of political pressures, with Hungary's next vote as a key catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,737,865
結束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 53% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by October 2024 scandals involving pardons linked to his aides in child abuse cases, which sparked Budapest's largest protests in over a decade and weakened Fidesz polling ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, amid ongoing economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, hurricane damage, and protests fueling speculation of regime instability despite his term extending to 2028. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% reflects Gaza war prolongation, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet, and corruption trials, though no snap election is imminent before late 2026. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's lower odds at 4.7% stem from early backlash to budget cuts, but his recent landslide majority provides stability. These probabilities highlight skin-in-the-game assessments of political pressures, with Hungary's next vote as a key catalyst.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 53% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by October 2024 scandals involving pardons linked to his aides in child abuse cases, which sparked Budapest's largest protests in over a decade and weakened Fidesz polling ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, amid ongoing economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, hurricane damage, and protests fueling speculation of regime instability despite his term extending to 2028. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.3% reflects Gaza war prolongation, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet, and corruption trials, though no snap election is imminent before late 2026. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's lower odds at 4.7% stem from early backlash to budget cuts, but his recent landslide majority provides stability. These probabilities highlight skin-in-the-game assessments of political pressures, with Hungary's next vote as a key catalyst.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "奧班－匈牙利總理" at 53%, followed by "迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" is "奧班－匈牙利總理" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.